A multi-model analysis of ‘Little Ice Age’ climate over China

Zhou, Xuecheng; Jiang, Dabang; Lang, Xianmei

doi:10.1177/0959683618824761

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 96 publications

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“…Overall, the simulated SATs in all regions exhibit relative cooling characteristics, similar to the reconstruction (except for the TP region). Although different simulated archives have different responses to external forcings (Zhou et al ., 2019), the SAT across the northern China region is more sensitive in the LIA than the NH, which is also consistent with the reconstruction.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

“…All individual simulations show warmer temperatures in the MCA and cooler in the LIA (Figure 4, with reference to the period of 1401–1850 AD), consistent with that of the reconstruction. The results agreed with previous studies based on the model simulations, which showed warmth conditions in the peak MCA (Yan et al ., 2015) and cold conditions in the LIA (Zhou et al ., 2019) over the whole of China. However, the performance differences are more remarkable for the simulations than the reconstruction over the MCA (Figure 6a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A previous study showed that summer SAT decreased over time during the LM, with multi‐decadal variations superimposed on the long‐term cooling. The cooling over the whole of China during the LIA was mainly attributed to changes in volcano activities and land use (Zhou et al ., 2019). Other model research has suggested that the SAT averaged over Eastern China during the LM are influenced mainly by effective solar radiation (volcanic eruptions and solar radiation) on the multidecadal timescale (Xiao et al ., 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detection and attribution of summer temperature changes in China during the last millennium

Wang

Jia

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The last millennium (LM, 1000-1850 AD) is crucial for studying historical climate change on decadal to multidecadal timescales. The summer surface air temperature (SAT) evolutions on regional scales (e.g. over China) are more uncertain than the globe/Northern Hemisphere, especially in response to external forcing factors and internal climate variability. Here, we provide onesignal (full-forcing) fingerprints of summer SAT in China derived from three large ensemble model archives with a multi-proxy reconstruction during the LM, Little Ice Age (LIA, 1451-1850 AD), and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1000-1250 AD), respectively. Our results show that (a) SATs in the northeast, southeast, northwest, and Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions of China show evident decreasing trends during the LM. External forcing response from all model archives agrees with the regional SAT reconstruction but underestimates variability in northwest China at the multidecadal timescale. (b) During the LIA, the summer regional SAT exhibits a cold condition in the reconstruction and simulations, especially in the northeast and northwest regions of China. External forcing responses in most model archives are the dominant factor on multidecadal SAT evolutions in the southeast, northeast, and TP regions of China and decadal SAT evolutions in northwest China. (c) During the MCA, detection and attribution of SAT shows that internal climate variability dominates in southeast, northeast, and TP regions of China, but external forcing dominates in northwest China at decadal to multidecadal timescales. These results contribute to a better understanding of the causes and mechanisms of regional climate change.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detection and attribution of summer temperature changes in China during the last millennium

Wang

Jia

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Among the models involved in the paleoclimate modelling intercomparing project 3 (PMIP3), HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) has better simulation ability towards the trend of extreme precipitation change and the spatial pattern of precipitation in China (Chen et al 2014), and well captures the PDO, El Niño and IOD climatic modes (Zhou et al 2019;Kay and Washington 2008). Here we used a 1200-years long control run of HadCM3 2°×2° simulation, which indicated that the external forcing are keeping constant, of which, the concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols are kept the level of preindustrial era, and the detected extreme precipitation changes may be only attributed to internal variability (Collins et al 2001).…”

Section: Data Source and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The severe drought of 1876–1878 in North China and possible causes

et al. 2021

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Extreme drought of 1876-1878 occurred in most regions of Northern China after the industrial revolution which has led to a series of social impacts, including harvest failure, price in ation, and population immigration. Concurrently, most regions of Northern Hemisphere occurred extreme drought. Here, we used the reconstructed high-resolution hydroclimatic (PDSI/precipitation) datasets, investigated the seasonalannual hydroclimatic spatial patterns and drought intensity with time evolution from 1876 to 1878 in North China. Furthermore, we selected combined Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modes with positive IOD/PDO and El Niño from the 1200-year control run simulations of HadCM3 to diagnose the causes of this severe drought. The extent and intensity of selected SST mode was similar with that in Paci c and Indian Ocean during the 1876-1878 from NOAA/ERSST dataset. The results showed that the large-scale drought of 1876-1878 was mainly driven by El Niño and positive PDO, while the effect of IOD was not signi cant. El Niño may trigger Circumglobal Teleconnection of Northern Hemisphere, and meridional disturbance of mid-latitude Rossby wave train changed the intensity of trough and ridge, and further blocked water vapor transportation.

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“…The last millennium (AD 850-1850) provides an opportunity to examine the role of natural forcings (i.e. solar activity and volcanic eruptions) in Asian climate change (Jones et al, 1998;Schmidt et al, 2011;Shi et al, 2015;Zhou et al, 2019). There are two typical intervals over the last millennium: the Variation of the summer Asian westerly jet over the last millennium based on the PMIP3 simulations Nanxuan Jiang, 1,2,3 Qing Yan 1,4,5 and Huijun Wang 1,5 Abstract Investigation of the evolution of summer Asian westerly jet (AWJ) in Earth history may deepen our understanding of the behavior of AWJ in the present and future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation of the summer Asian westerly jet over the last millennium based on the PMIP3 simulations

2019

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Investigation of the evolution of summer Asian westerly jet (AWJ) in Earth history may deepen our understanding of the behavior of AWJ in the present and future. Here, the variation of summer westerlies and the associated mechanisms over West and East Asia are examined using the last millennium simulations from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3). The multimodel ensemble mean of 11 PMIP3 models reproduces the spatial distribution of modern zonal wind at 200 hPa and captures the location and intensity of the summer AWJ well. The results illustrate that the location of summer westerlies over West and East Asia shows no clear long-term trend over the last millennium, whereas there is an enhancing trend for the intensity, but with significant interannual and multidecadal variability. Summer westerlies over West Asia mainly oscillate within ~25-year band in terms of the location and intensity, while the principal periodicity over East Asia oscillate within ~25- and ~15-year band, respectively. Moreover, summer AWJ broadly moves poleward and weakens during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA, AD 1000–1200) relative to the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA, AD 1400–1600), which is attributed to the reduced meridional temperature gradient during the MCA. This poleward shift is consistent with the reconstructed moisture conditions over Central Asia, but the lack of direct proxy for westerlies restricts detailed model–data comparisons. Nevertheless, a possible scenario is presented on the spatiotemporal variation of summer AWJ over the last millennium, which may shed light on the response of the AWJ to natural forcings.

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A multi-model analysis of ‘Little Ice Age’ climate over China

Cited by 8 publications

References 96 publications

Detection and attribution of summer temperature changes in China during the last millennium

Detection and attribution of summer temperature changes in China during the last millennium

The severe drought of 1876–1878 in North China and possible causes

Variation of the summer Asian westerly jet over the last millennium based on the PMIP3 simulations

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