This study proposes a solution to the feeder bus timetabling problem, in which the terminal departure times and vehicle sizes are simultaneously determined based on the given transfer passengers and their arrival times at a bus terminal. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model with the objective of minimizing the transfer waiting time of served passengers, the transfer failure cost of non-served passengers, and the operating costs of bus companies. In addition to train passengers who plan to transfer to buses, local passengers who intend to board buses are considered and treated as passengers from virtual trains in the proposed model. Passenger attitudes and behaviors toward the waiting queue caused by bus capacity constraints in peak hour demand conditions are explicitly embedded in the MINLP model. A hybrid artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is developed to solve the MINLP model. Various experiments are set up to account for the performance of the proposed model and solution algorithm.

To investigate the influences of causes of unreliability and bus schedule recovery phenomenon on microscopic segment-level travel time variance, this study adopts Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to specify, estimate, and measure the theoretical proposed models. The SEM model establishes and verifies hypotheses for interrelationships among travel time deviations, departure delays, segment lengths, dwell times, and number of traffic signals and access connections. The finally accepted model demonstrates excellent fitness. Most of the hypotheses are supported by the sample dataset from bus Automatic Vehicle Location system. The SEM model confirms the bus schedule recovery phenomenon. The departure delays at bus terminals and upstream travel time deviations indeed have negative impacts on travel time fluctuation of buses en route. Meanwhile, the segment length directly and negatively impacts travel time variability and inversely positively contributes to the schedule recovery process; this exogenous variable also indirectly and positively influences travel times through the existence of signalized intersections and access connections. This study offers a rational approach to analyzing travel time deviation feature. The SEM model structure and estimation results facilitate the understanding of bus service performance characteristics and provide several implications for bus service planning, management, and operation.

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