This publication reflects the results of the author’s research on improving the domestic statistical and methodological tools used in the analysis and forecasting of the Russian economy. In this regard, the main features of the formation and application of the Business Activity Index for basic spheres of the economy of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (hereinafter, the index of business activity) are shown and substantiations of its individual advantages are given in comparison with the index of output of goods and services for the basic types of economic activities of Rosstat (hereinafter, the release of goods and services). The authors provide evidence that despite a number of positive qualities of the applied methodology for constructing the index of output of goods and services, the business activity index, according to the authors of the article, provides a more objective assessment of macroeconomic dynamics, since it includes additional indicators reflecting financial and social aspects of economic development. It is proved that the main advantages of the business activity index are manifested in a more accurate determination of the depth of crisis phenomena in socio-economic development, as well as in determining the timing of the onset and overcoming of these negative processes. The characteristics of the macroeconomic indicators that make up the business activity index are given. Methods for calculating the weights of indicators characterizing the level of business activity in various spheres of the national economy, as well as methods for determining changes in this level are considered. Changes in the dynamics of these weights are analyzed. Ways of more efficient use of business activity indices in the practice of accounting, forecasting and management of socio-economic development are proposed. The conclusion is substantiated that it is advisable to use the business activity index for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and strategic planning, which will make it possible to more accurately assess the impact of the implementation of national projects and the social package of the message of the President of the Russian Federation on economic growth and increase the efficiency of using business activity tools in the practice of public administration of social economic development of the country.

Using the agent relations framework the authors discuss main principles of venture investments in a market economy. The positive impact of venture capital on innovations’ quality improvement and their acceleration as well as its role in the process of new technological and informational chains’ creation are demonstrated. Limited dependence of venture investments on the dominating national financial system’s model is stated. The pivotal role of the state policy in the venture market’s formation is shown.

In the article, the authors express their opinion on the outcomes of social and economic development of Russia in 2020 and give a forecast of expected results for 2021 and 2022. The state and possible directions for overcoming stagnation are considered, primarily by closing the technology gap in production and ensuring the growth of labor productivity, business, investment and consumer activity, increasing the efficiency of capital investments as key factors in the recovery of the real sector and the knowledge economy, including industrial production, agriculture, capital construction.The drawbacks of the current management system are noted, and measures to overcome the structural crisis are proposed. The need for changing the state socio-economic policy is substantiated. Its main goal should be to ensure the health of the nation.The authors compare trends in the Russian and world economies by main development indicators, such as gross domestic product, industrial production, investments, foreign trade.The article examines the shortcomings of the current state financial policy, which should become an instrument of financial support for sustainable socio-economic development and countering external and internal risks and threats. The problems of execution of the federal budget for 2020 are analyzed. Using case examples, the authors prove the necessity for priority use of financial resources of the «rainy-day fund» to accelerate the development of sectors of the national economy.Given the slowdown in global economic growth in 2020 and problems associated with its full recovery in 2021, the expected expansion of trade wars and sanctions lead to a conclusion that there is a growing negative trend in the Russian economy as well with the potential of stagnation escalating into recession.

A problem of a nonoptimal structure of the solvent demand in different Russian industrial branches is reviewed in the article. The influence of internal elements of the solvent demand on the development of industries, which produce for the domestic market, is studied. The main attention is paid to interconnections between the solvent demand and the financial situation of enterprises, banks' involvement in investment processes, and growth of investment into fixed capital. The analysis is based on estimates obtained by using methods of mathematical statistics.

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