Relevance of research. In order to reduce energy losses, an accurate and timely forecast of the amount of consumed electricity is necessary. Accurate forecasting of electrical loads of industrial enterprises and their divisions (productions, workshops, departments etc.) allows planning of normal operating conditions, concluding contracts for the electricity supply with the electricity supply company under more favorable conditions, and improving the electricity quality, which ultimately affects the final cost of the products produced by an enterprise. So far, more than 150 forecasting methods of electrical loads have been developed. Usually, the most convenient one is selected based on the forecaster experience by creating and analyzing several forecasting models in order to identify the best. Therefore, in order to simplify the forecasting procedure, it is necessary to develop the methodology for forecasting analysis. This methodology should enable canceling forecasting algorithms that will create lower quality forecasts. The main objective is to develop the methodology for making a forecasting analysis of power consumption on the example of a pumping station of an enterprise with a continuous cycle of work to increase the efficiency of energy consumption and implementation of energy-saving measures. Objects of research: the process of forecasting electrical loads of a pumping station of the enterprise with a continuous cycle of work. Methods of research: fundamental principles of the theory of electrical engineering, statistical methods for power consumption forecasting, the method for detecting the trend of radio signals, and fractal analysis of time series. Research results. The methodology for forecasting analysis of power consumption, which makes it possible to apply the most appropriate methods to forecast the operational power consumption, is developed. For the first time, the radio signal trend detection method is applied to identify the trend of electrical loads. The variation ranges of the fractal parameters of time series of electrical loads are established depending on the variation coefficient of the time series for different periods of time. The Brown method of exponential smoothing that is used to forecast the electrical loads, in the case of identifying the smoothing constant α is in the beyond set ( ), is further improved. The regularity of changes in the fractal parameters of time series of power consumption of a pumping station with an increase in the time series duration and their field of application are explained.
A calculation of the parameters of the equivalent asynchronous electric machine allows introducing the automated calculation of the static and dynamic stability of an electrical supply system in an industrial enterprise for any combination of different electric motors. It also ensures the electromagnetic compatibility in a network by means of calculations of nonsinusoidal mode in the network with proposed sources of higher harmonics. The research purpose is a method for accurate determination of the equivalent asynchronous machine parameters for the load node consisting of several groups of asynchronous electric motors of the same type. An algorithm block diagram for calculating the initial data is developed. The input data is the number of groups of the same motor type, the number of machines in each group, and a vector of the engine power ratings. The polling of the counters of each engine in all groups is performed through the use of an embedded cycle. A fragment of a substation one-line scheme which feeds an electrical industrial enterprise water circuit is given: three 800 kW asynchronous machines for each pump, three 400 kW asynchronous machines and three 250 kW asynchronous machines. The calculation results for the given example of the scheme are executed and presented in the table. The data obtained show that the actual parameters of the equivalent machine in a 6 kV load node are significantly different from the averaged data. The typical difference between the results obtained by the proposed method and the available methods is 5%, and the maximum reaches 30%. Therefore, it is expedient to use accurate data when performing calculations. K e ywor d s : equivalent asynchronous machine; group of electric motors of the same type; load node; information and control system.
The publication presents the most common and promising models and schemes for replacing the power supply system of industrial enterprises, and an example of their use in practice for power supply to sewage treatment plants of a chemical enterprise. Various types of models are considered (in tabular form, in the form of an electrical replacement circuit or in the form of a finite-state machine), as well as a logical-probabilistic approach to the representation of the power supply system. The use of automation systems in power supply systems of industrial enterprises can reduce the total number of accidents, prevent their development, reduce the time of disconnections of electrical installations and downtime of mechanisms, and also allows to transfer to work without constant maintenance a significant number of electrical installations of substations, which, in turn, leads to a reduction in the number of service personnel, increase labor productivity and reduce maintenance costs. One of the main tasks on the way to automating the power supply system of enterprises is to present it in the form of a model. The list of replacement models and schemes that can be used to represent the power supply system of enterprises is quite large, and choosing the appropriate model, for that best meets the requirements of the final goal is quite a complex scientific task. The purpose of this article is to analyze the most common and promising models and schemes for replacing the power supply system and provide recommendations on their application in practice for power supply to sewage treatment plants of a chemical enterprise. Presenting the power supply system in the form of a table allows you to simplify and visually perform certification of electrical equipment, identify problem and weak points in the power supply system of industrial enterprises. Such a table proves that a large amount of electrical equipment at lower levels depends on a single electrical device at higher levels. The representation of the power supply system in the form of a three-phase symmetric replacement circuit can be used to calculate short-circuit currents in symmetric and unbalanced modes in the MatLab program and similar. Using the model of the power supply system in the form of a finite-state machine allows you to visually check the reliability of power supply to consumers, simplify the design of the power supply system of an industrial enterprise, select the state of switching devices in the power supply system and take into account the advantages and disadvantages of each state. It is advisable to use the methods discussed in this article to represent the power supply system (in tabular form, in the form of a finite-state machine or a three-phase symmetric replacement scheme) and their further application and use in automated power supply systems of industrial enterprises. The logical-probabilistic method allows us to consider the issue of power supply reliability based on the theory of logical algebra.
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