In recent years, flash droughts with a rapid onset and strong intensity have attracted extensive attention due to their impact on agriculture and ecosystems. However, there is still no feasible method for flash drought forecasting and early warning. This paper employs the thresholds of several meteorological variables to identify flash droughts in Zhejiang Province, China, and build a probabilistic flash drought forecasting model through numeric weather forecast (NWF) and the generalized Bayesian model (GBM). The results show that the northern part of Zhejiang Province has the highest risk of flash drought. The NWF is a viable method to provide future information for flash drought forecasting and early warning, but its forecasting accuracy tends to decline with the increase in the lead time and is very limited when the lead time is over 5 days, especially for the precipitation forecast. Due to the low performance of the NWF, the flash drought forecast based on the raw NWF may be unreliable when the lead time is over 5 days. To solve this problem, probabilistic forecasting based on GBM is employed to quantify the uncertainty in the NWF and is tested through an example analysis. In the example analysis, it was found that the probability of a flash drought exceeds 30% from the probabilistic forecasting when the lead time is 12 days, while the deterministic forecasting via the raw NWF cannot identify a flash drought when the lead time is over 5 days. In conclusion, probabilistic forecasting can identify a potential flash drought earlier and can be used to evaluate the risk of a flash drought, which is conducive for the early warning of flash droughts and the development of response measures.

In this study, the theory of equilibrium water prices is constructed and practiced based on previous research on cooperative game technology and the water price system. The equilibrium water price utilized in this study emphasized solving the unbalanced and unsustainable water supply system, including the reclaimed water resources and the current water price used in numerous Chinese cities. Safety, affordability, and sustainability become the key factors of the equilibrium water price system, which is operated and analyzed in a typical city in southeastern China. The cooperative game model of equilibrium water price is solved by game technology, considering various factors such as the price strategy, the water supply quantity, and the local water demand. The practical application shows that the theoretical system can effectively solve the problem of water price formation mechanisms after the unified allocation of different types of water resources. It not only enhances the enthusiasm and initiative of the public in the utilization of reclaimed water, but also plays an important role in the rational utilization of multiple water resources for different purposes by introducing a reasonable water price ratio and local water resource allocation.