To reduce carbon emissions, the Chinese government is considering introducing a differentiated industrial carbon tax on enterprises outside the carbon trading market in the future. An efficient carbon tax must consider not only how carbon taxes impact the current economy but also how the size of the tax should be adjusted across time due to external changes. To calculate the optimal industrial carbon tax for China which is subject to certain constraints, this paper investigates the economic and environmental effects of four possible industrial carbon tax rate models under carbon intensity constraints from 2021 to 2030 by a dynamic input–output optimization model. The results show that the dynamic tax rate model leads to larger fluctuations in GDP growth than the other tax models, with a low initial tax rate in the beginning and a high tax rate exceeding ¥180/t in 2030. Second, a large quantity of capital stock is distributed across the energy-intensive industries, which leads the existing capital investment structure to be path-dependent. This offsets the performance of carbon taxes. Third, indirect energy-intensive industries such as construction and transport are insensitive to the industrial carbon tax. Finally, comparing the impacts of the four tax rate models, the optimal industrial carbon tax for China is found to be a fixed differentiated tax rate, in which energy-intensive sectors are taxed ¥75/t and low-carbon sectors are taxed ¥50/t. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-19162-6.

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