Wild res are an important disturbance factor in forest ecosystems. Assessing the probability of forest wild res can assist in forest wild re prevention, control, and supervision. The logistic regression model is widely used to forecast the probability, spatial patterns, and drivers of forest wild res. This study used logistic regression to establish a spatial prediction model for forest wild re susceptibility, which was applied to evaluate the risk of forest wild res in Central Yunnan Province (CYP), China. A forest wild re risk classi cation was implemented for CYP using forest burn scar data for 2001 to 2020 and the logistic spatial prediction model for forest wild re susceptibility. Climate, vegetation, topographical, human activities, and location were selected as forest wild re prediction variables. The results showed that: (1) The distributions of temperature, vegetation coverage, distance to water bodies, distance to roads, and precipitation were positively correlated with the occurrence of forest wild res. Elevation, relative humidity, the global vegetation moisture index, wind speed, slope, latitude, and distance to residential areas were negatively correlated with the occurrence of forest wild res. (2) The results of the logistic spatial prediction model for forest wild re susceptibility showed a good t to observed data, with an overall simulation probability of 81.6%. The optimal threshold for spatial prediction for forest wild re susceptibility in CYP was determined to be 0.414. A signi cance level of a selected model variable of < 0.05 resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.882-0.890. (3) Forest wild re prevention efforts should focus on Southwest Yuxi City and southern Qujing City since they accounted for a high proportion of the areas at high risk of forest wild res. Other localities should adjust forest wild re prevention measures according to local conditions and strengthen existing wild re prevention and emergency resource planning and allocation. (4) Some factors contributing to forest wild res where different among the different areas. Forest wild re risk factors had different degrees of impact under different spatial and temporal scales. The spatial relationships between wild re disasters and in uencing factors should be established in areas with heterogeneous environmental conditions for the selection of relevant factors.
Wildfires are an important disturbance factor in forest ecosystems. Assessing the probability of forest wildfires can assist in forest wildfire prevention, control, and supervision. The logistic regression model is widely used to forecast the probability, spatial patterns, and drivers of forest wildfires. This study used logistic regression to establish a spatial prediction model for forest wildfire susceptibility, which was applied to evaluate the risk of forest wildfires in Central Yunnan Province (CYP), China. A forest wildfire risk classification was implemented for CYP using forest burn scar data for 2001 to 2020 and the logistic spatial prediction model for forest wildfire susceptibility. Climate, vegetation, topographical, human activities, and location were selected as forest wildfire prediction variables. The results showed that: (1) The distributions of temperature, vegetation coverage, distance to water bodies, distance to roads, and precipitation were positively correlated with the occurrence of forest wildfires. Elevation, relative humidity, the global vegetation moisture index, wind speed, slope, latitude, and distance to residential areas were negatively correlated with the occurrence of forest wildfires. (2) The results of the logistic spatial prediction model for forest wildfire susceptibility showed a good fit to observed data, with an overall simulation probability of 81.6%. The optimal threshold for spatial prediction for forest wildfire susceptibility in CYP was determined to be 0.414. A significance level of a selected model variable of < 0.05 resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.882–0.890. (3) Forest wildfire prevention efforts should focus on Southwest Yuxi City and southern Qujing City since they accounted for a high proportion of the areas at high risk of forest wildfires. Other localities should adjust forest wildfire prevention measures according to local conditions and strengthen existing wildfire prevention and emergency resource planning and allocation. (4) Some factors contributing to forest wildfires where different among the different areas. Forest wildfire risk factors had different degrees of impact under different spatial and temporal scales. The spatial relationships between wildfire disasters and influencing factors should be established in areas with heterogeneous environmental conditions for the selection of relevant factors.
Rapidly increasing numbers of the plastic-covered greenhouse (PCG) worldwide ensure food security but threaten environmental security; thus, accurate monitoring of the spatiotemporal pattern in plastic-covered greenhouses (PCGs) is necessary for modern agricultural management and environmental protection. However, many urgent issues still exist in PCG mapping, such as multi-source data combination, classification accuracy improvement, spatiotemporal scale expansion, and dynamic trend quantification. To address these problems, this study proposed a new framework that progressed layer by layer from multi-feature scenario construction, classifier and feature scenario preliminary screening, feature optimization, and spatiotemporal mapping, to rapidly identify large-scale PCGs by integrating multi-source data using Google Earth Engine (GEE), and the framework was first applied to Central Yunnan Province (CYP), where PCGs are concentrated but no relevant research exists. The results suggested that: (1) combining the random forest (RF) classifier and spectrum (S) + backscatter (B) + index (I) + texture (T) + terrain (Tr) feature scenario produced the highest F-score (95.60%) and overall accuracy (88.04%). (2) The feature optimization for the S + I + T + B + Tr scenario positively impacted PCG recognition, increasing the average F-score by 1.03% (96.63% vs. 95.60%). (3) The 6-year average F-score of the PCGs extracted by the combined RF algorithm and the optimal feature subset exceeded 95.00%, and its spatiotemporal mapping results indicated that PCGs were prominently agglomerated in the central CYP and continuously expanded by an average of 65.45 km2/yr from 2016 to 2021. The research reveals that based on the GEE platform, multi-source data can be integrated through a feature optimization algorithm to more efficiently map PCG spatiotemporal information in complex regions.
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