Global warming is widely regarded to have played a contributing role in numerous past biotic crises. Here, we show that the end-Permian mass extinction coincided with a rapid temperature rise to exceptionally high values in the Early Triassic that were inimical to life in equatorial latitudes and suppressed ecosystem recovery. This was manifested in the loss of calcareous algae, the near-absence of fish in equatorial Tethys, and the dominance of small taxa of invertebrates during the thermal maxima. High temperatures drove most Early Triassic plants and animals out of equatorial terrestrial ecosystems and probably were a major cause of the end-Smithian crisis.

The 260-million-year-old Emeishan volcanic province of southwest China overlies and is interbedded with Middle Permian carbonates that contain a record of the Guadalupian mass extinction. Sections in the region thus provide an opportunity to directly monitor the relative timing of extinction and volcanism within the same locations. These show that the onset of volcanism was marked by both large phreatomagmatic eruptions and extinctions amongst fusulinacean foraminifers and calcareous algae. The temporal coincidence of these two phenomena supports the idea of a cause-and-effect relationship. The crisis predates the onset of a major negative carbon isotope excursion that points to subsequent severe disturbance of the ocean-atmosphere carbon cycle.

High-resolution oxygen isotope records document the timing and magnitude of global warming across the Permian-Triassic (P-Tr) boundary. Oxygen isotope ratios measured on phosphate-bound oxygen in conodont apatite from the Meishan and Shangsi sections (South China) decrease by 2‰ in the latest Permian, translating into low-latitude surface water warming of 8 °C. The oxygen isotope shift coincides with the negative shift in carbon isotope ratios of carbonates, suggesting that the addition of isotopically light carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system by Siberian Traps volcanism and related processes resulted in higher greenhouse gas levels and global warming. The major temperature rise started immediately before the main extinction phase, with maximum and harmful temperatures documented in the latest Permian (Meishan: bed 27). The coincidence of climate warming and the main pulse of extinction suggest that global warming was one of the causes of the collapse of the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, very warm climate conditions in the Early Triassic may have played a major role in the delayed recovery in the aftermath of the Permian-Triassic crisis.

The Permian-Triassic mass extinction was the most severe biotic crisis in the past 500 million years. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the crisis, but few account for the spectrum of extinction selectivity and subsequent recovery. Here we show that selective losses are best accounted for by a combination of lethally warm, shallow waters and anoxic deep waters that acted to severely restrict the habitable area to a narrow mid-water refuge zone. The relative tolerance of groups to this double whammy provides the first clear explanation for the selective extinction losses during this double-pulsed crisis and also the fitful recovery. Thus, high temperature intolerant shallow-water dwellers, such as corals, large foraminifers and radiolarians were eliminated first whilst high temperature tolerant ostracods thrived except in anoxic deeper-waters. In contrast, hypoxia tolerant but temperature intolerant small foraminifers were driven from shallow-waters but thrived on dysoxic slopes margins. Only those mollusc groups, which are tolerant of both hypoxia and high temperatures, were able to thrive in the immediate aftermath of the extinction. Limited Early Triassic benthic recovery was restricted to mid-water depths and coincided with intervals of cooling and deepening of water column anoxia that expanded the habitable mid-water refuge zone.