DOI to the publisher's website.• The final author version and the galley proof are versions of the publication after peer review.• The final published version features the final layout of the paper including the volume, issue and page numbers. Link to publication General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal.If the publication is distributed under the terms of Article 25fa of the Dutch Copyright Act, indicated by the "Taverne" license above, please follow below link for the End User Agreement:

Predicting the behaviour of consumers provides valuable information for retailers, such as the expected spend of a consumer or the total turnover of the retailer. The ability to make predictions on an individual level is useful, as it allows retailers to accurately perform targeted marketing. However, with the expected large number of consumers and their diverse behaviour, making accurate predictions on an individual consumer level is difficult. In this paper we present a framework that focuses on this trade-off in an online setting. By making predictions on a larger number of consumers at a time, we improve the predictive accuracy but at the cost of usefulness, as we can say less about the individual consumers. The framework is developed in an online setting, where we update the prediction model and make new predictions over time. We show the existence of the trade-off in an experimental evaluation on a real-world dataset consisting of 39 weeks of transaction data.

No abstract

No abstract