No abstract

Capital flows as one part of this economic growth is sourced from the capital markets namely Indonesia stock exchange. The capital markets have a function of economics because capital markets provide a facility or vehicle which brings together two interests, namely those who have excess funds and those who need funds. Before investing, investors should set a goal of investing and the magnitude of the funds invested. Any investment decisions taken have the risks borne by the investor, either investment in bonds or stocks. Stocks with known characteristics of high risk-high return, which means the stock provides an opportunity to earn high profits but also potentially high loss risk. Value at Risk (VaR) models has been extensively used not only in the banking sector but also in calculating in many sectors. The aim of this paper is to outline Value at Risk methodology by giving more emphasis on variance-covariance method, historical simulation, and Monte Carlo model. The model used to investigate the applicability and usefulness of VaR in stock investment in Indonesia Manufacturing companies. Using the methodologies as described, the maximum potential loss on each stock and its portfolio of nine stocks calculated at 95% confidence level. The models were validated using backtesting and Kupiec test. The research found that there are different results of VaR calculated using variance-covariance, historical simulation, and Monte Carlo models. However, the variance-covariance model is the valid one to measure the maximum potential loss of stocks.

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought changes in various aspects of life, especially in business management. This study aims to examine whether there are differences in the choice of opportunities between arbitrage opportunities and innovation opportunities by micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the food and beverage sector in Surabaya city during the Covid-19 pandemic. The sampling technique used in this study was purposive sampling with certain criteria. Data was collected from 100 respondents who met the criteria which were then tested using the Sappiro Wilk average difference test because the data were found to be not normally distributed. The results showed that there was a difference between arbitrage opportunity and innovation opportunity. It was also found that food and beverage MSMEs actors in Surabaya city were engaged in innovation opportunities (81 respondents) more than arbitrage opportunities (15 respondents) whereas the rest 4 respondents are engaged in both opportunities. The implications of this finding show that the ability of MSMEs actors to survive in difficult times, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic with various restrictions on business operations in the food and beverage sector, lies in their ability to identify and execute the opportunities.

Globalization is growing rapidly, inter-state economic relations will become intertwined and increase flow of trade of goods and money as well as capital between countries. Changes in macroeconomic indicators occurring in other countries will indirectly impact the country’s economic indicators. Indonesia is one of the countries with the largest potential land for the development of industrial sectors. This is related to the many resources in Indonesia for both raw materials and labour. The results of Indonesia’s manufacturing industry increasingly propagate into world markets. The Central Statistic Agency (BPS) records the Indonesian economy in cumulative growth of 5.78 percent in 2013. The achievement of Indonesia’s economic growth is still far below China and India, however, in terms of economic growth, Indonesia is among the three major. The number of middle class citizens reached 36 million people and was relatively productive. While the manufacturing industry becomes an important component to economic exposure (study on the IDX-listed manufacturing company 2015-2017). There are 120 non-financial companies in Indonesia. The sampling technique in this study is nonprobability sampling (unrandomized withdrawal of samples). The data collection technique in this study is to use the documentation method published by the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). The analysis of the research data includes descriptive statistical analysis, inferential statistical analysis and hypothesis testing.