Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol‐radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol‐driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed‐phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of ‐1.6 to ‐0.6 W m−2, or ‐2.0 to ‐0.4 W m−2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial‐era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

Abstract. Aerosol-cloud interactions are one of the most uncertain processes in climate models due to their nonlinear complexity. A key complexity arises from the possibility that clouds can respond to perturbed aerosols in two opposite ways, as characterized by the traditional "cloud lifetime" hypothesis and more recent "buffered system" hypothesis. Their importance in climate simulations remains poorly understood. Here we investigate the response of the liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol perturbations for warm clouds from the perspective of general circulation model (GCM) and ATrain remote sensing, through process-oriented model evaluations. A systematic difference is found in the LWP response between the model results and observations. The model results indicate a near-global uniform increase of LWP with increasing aerosol loading, while the sign of the response of the LWP from the A-Train varies from region to region. The satellite-observed response of the LWP is closely related to meteorological and/or macrophysical factors, in addition to the microphysics. The model does not reproduce this variability of cloud susceptibility (i.e., sensitivity of LWP to perturbed aerosols) because the parameterization of the autoconversion process assumes only suppression of rain formation in response to increased cloud droplet number, and does not consider macrophysical aspects that serve as a mechanism for the negative responses of the LWP via enhancements of evaporation and precipitation. Model biases are also found in the precipitation microphysics, which suggests that the model generates rainwater readily even when little cloud water is present. This essentially causes projections of unrealistically frequent and light rain, with high cloud susceptibilities to aerosol perturbations.

SummaryThe urinary concentrations of 8-isoprostane and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), which are biomarkers of oxidative stress, were measured in 677 Japanese people without any diseases, and their correlations with lifestyle facotrs, lifestyle-related blood biochemical parameters, and dietary intake of antioxidative vitamins were investigated. The mean urinary concentration of 8-isoprostane and 8-OHdG was 0.58 ng/mg creatinine and 8.43 ng/mg creatinine, respectively. Mean urinary 8-isoprostane was significantly different in terms of age, gender, smoking and alcohol consumption but not different in terms of body mass index (BMI) and exercise. By multiple regression analysis, urinary 8-isoprostane was significantly influenced by smoking and age. On the other hand, mean urinary 8-OHdG showed differences only by age group. Multiple regression analysis revealed that urinary 8-OHdG was significantly influenced by age, smoking, body weight, levels of high-sensitivity Creactive protein (Hs-CRP) and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol in females, although it was significantly influenced by body weight in males. The present study shows that urinary 8-isoprostane is associated with lipid peroxidation related-lifestyles such as smoking, and urinary 8-OHdG is associated with arteriosclerosis related-factors such as Hs-CRP. Our findings suggest that 8-isoprostane and 8-OHdG appear to be prospective biomarkers for early prediction of lifestyle related-disease risk at the population level.

Aerosols affect climate by modifying cloud properties through their role as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei, called aerosol–cloud interactions. In most global climate models (GCMs), the aerosol–cloud interactions are represented by empirical parameterisations, in which the mass of cloud liquid water (LWP) is assumed to increase monotonically with increasing aerosol loading. Recent satellite observations, however, have yielded contradictory results: LWP can decrease with increasing aerosol loading. This difference implies that GCMs overestimate the aerosol effect, but the reasons for the difference are not obvious. Here, we reproduce satellite-observed LWP responses using a global simulation with explicit representations of cloud microphysics, instead of the parameterisations. Our analyses reveal that the decrease in LWP originates from the response of evaporation and condensation processes to aerosol perturbations, which are not represented in GCMs. The explicit representation of cloud microphysics in global scale modelling reduces the uncertainty of climate prediction.