A lack of reliable estimates of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) aerosols over oceans has severely limited our ability to quantify their effects on cloud properties and extent of cooling by reflecting solar radiation—a key uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. We introduce a methodology for ascribing cloud properties to CCN and isolating the aerosol effects from meteorological effects. Its application showed that for a given meteorology, CCN explains three-fourths of the variability in the radiative cooling effect of clouds, mainly through affecting shallow cloud cover and water path. This reveals a much greater sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing to CCN than previously reported, which means too much cooling if incorporated into present climate models. This suggests the existence of compensating aerosol warming effects yet to be discovered, possibly through deep clouds.

Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (W b ). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and W b of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by W b and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (N db ), which is the same as CCN(S). Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at Oklahoma, at Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25°restricts the satellite coverage to ∼25% of the world area in a single day. (1) states that the uncertainty in aerosol/cloud interactions dominates the uncertainty about the degree of influence that human activities have on climate. Because clouds form in ascending air currents, whereas cloud droplets nucleate on aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), we need accurate measurements of both updrafts and CCN supersaturation (S) spectra before we can disentangle aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing (CRF) from dynamical effects. Need for Global Measurements of Cloud Base Updrafts and CCN(S)Tackling the global change problems as identified by the IPCC requires that these quantities be measured on a global scale. However, satellites have not been able to measure updraft speed of the air that forms the clouds or the concentrations of aerosols that are capable of forming cloud drops, which are ingested into the clouds as they grow. Lack of such fundamental quantities has greatly hindered our capability of disentangling the effects of meteorology and anthropogenic aerosol emissions on cloud properties (2). This situation is starting to change with our recently developed methodology to retrieve updrafts at cloud base (3, 4) using the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite. This satellite is sun-synchronous, with an overpass time near 13:30 solar time.Missing such fundamental quantities as CCN(S) and cloud base updraft W b has been preventing us from disentangling the effects of aerosols from atmospheric dynamics (i.e., meteorology). Their absence also has limited our ability to validate the hypothesized impacts of added aerosols on a large range of phenomena, including (i) maintaining full cloud cover in marine stratocumulus, thus incurring a str...