ObjectivesWe aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate variability, animal reservoirs and scrub typhus incidence in Southern China.MethodsWe obtained data on scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou every month from 2006 to 2014 from the Chinese communicable disease network. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus.ResultsWavelet analysis found the incidence of scrub typhus cycled with a period of approximately 8–12 months and long-term trends with a period of approximately 24–36 months. The DLNM model shows that relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were associated with the incidence of scrub typhus.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the incidence scrub typhus has two main temporal cycles. Determining the reason for this trend and how it can be used for disease control and prevention requires additional research. The transmission of scrub typhus is highly dependent on climate factors and rodent density, both of which should be considered in prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus.

BackgroundIn the last decade, scrub typhus (ST) has been emerging or re-emerging in some areas of Asia, including Guangzhou, one of the most affected endemic areas of ST in China.MethodsBased on the data on all cases reported in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2014, we characterized the epidemiological features, and identified environmental determinants for the spatial distribution of ST using a panel negative binomial model.ResultsA total of 4821 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangzhou during 2006―2014. The annual incidence increased noticeably and the increase was relatively high and rapid in rural townships and among elderly females. The majority of cases (86.8%) occurred during May―October, and farmers constituted the majority of the cases, accounting for 33.9% in urban and 61.6% in rural areas. The number of housekeeper patients had a rapid increment in both rural and urban areas during the study period. Atmospheric pressure and relative humidity with lags of 1 or 2 months, distributions of broadleaved forest and rural township were identified as determinants for the spatiotemporal distribution of scrub typhus.ConclusionOur results indicate that surveillance and public education need to be focused on the elderly farmers in rural areas covered with broadleaf forest in southern China.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2153-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundScrub typhus has been increasingly reported in Southern China, and public health authorities are concerned about its increased incidence. Additionally, little evidence is available on the epidemiology of scrub typhus in Southern China. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological and geographic features of ST in Guangzhou City, Southern China, to guide the future prevention efforts.MethodsScrub typhus surveillance data in Guangzhou City during 2006–2012 were obtained from the Chinese National Communicable Disease Surveillance Network. We first conducted a descriptive analysis to analyze the epidemiological features of scrub typhus. Then we used space-time scan statistic based on a discrete Poisson model to detect and evaluate high-risk spatial-temporal clusters of scrub typhus.ResultsThere were 4,001 cases of scrub typhus in Guangzhou City during the study period. The incidence of scrub typhus increased from 3.29 per 100,000 in 2006 to 9.85 per 100,000 in 2012. A summer peak was observed in June and July with a second peak in September and October except year 2009 and 2011. The majority of the cases (71.4%) were among persons aged ≥40 years, and female incidence was higher than male incidence in persons ≥50 years. In the space-time analysis, high-risk clusters were concentrated in rural areas in Guangzhou City. Over the past 7 years, Haizhu District, an urban area, was found to be a high-risk cluster for the first time in 2012.ConclusionThe resurgence of scrub typhus epidemics in Guangzhou population in 2012 necessitates more effective measures for minimizing future epidemics. Consideration of high-risk population and historical spatial-temporal clusters may help prevent scrub typhus. The risk of scrub typhus in urban areas should not be neglected and needs more attention from public health authorities.

BackgroundThe epidemic tendency of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is on the rise in recent years in Guangzhou. This study aimed to explore the associations between meteorological factors and HFRS epidemic risk in Guangzhou for the period from 2006–2015.MethodsWe obtained data of HFRS cases in Guangzhou from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) during the period of 2006–2015. Meteorological data were obtained from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and HFRS.ResultsThe annual average incidence was 0.92 per 100000, with the annual incidence ranging from 0.64/100000 in 2009 to 1.05/100000 in 2012. The monthly number of HFRS cases decreased by 5.543% (95%CI -5.564% to -5.523%) each time the temperature was increased by 1°C and the number of cases decreased by 0.075% (95%CI -0.076% to -0.074%) each time the aggregate rainfall was increased by 1 mm. We found that average temperature with a one-month lag was significantly associated with HFRS transmission.ConclusionsMeteorological factors had significant association with occurrence of HFRS in Guangzhou, Southern China. This study provides preliminary information for further studies on epidemiological prediction of HFRS and for developing an early warning system.

BackgroundAedes albopictus is among the 100 most invasive species worldwide and poses a major risk to public health. Photoperiodic diapause provides a crucial ecological basis for the adaptation of this species to adverse environments. Ae. albopictus is the vital vector transmitting dengue virus in Guangzhou, but its diapause activities herein remain obscure.MethodsIn the laboratory, yeast powder and food slurry were compared for a proper diapause determination method, and the critical photoperiod (CPP) was tested at illumination times of 11, 11.5, 12, 12.5, 13, and 13.5 h. A 4-parameter logistic (4PL) regression model was selected to estimate the CPP. In the field, the seasonal dynamics of the Ae. albopictus population, egg diapause, and hatching of overwintering eggs were investigated monthly, weekly, and daily, respectively. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to assess the associations of diapause with meteorological factors.ResultsIn the laboratory, both the wild population and the Foshan strain of Ae. albopictus were induced to diapause at an incidence greater than 80%, and no significant difference (P > 0.1) was observed between the two methods for identifying diapause. The CPP of this population was estimated to be 12.312 h of light. In the field, all of the indexes of the wild population were at the lowest levels from December to February, and the Route Index was the first to increase in March. Diapause incidence displayed pronounced seasonal dynamics. It was estimated that the day lengths of 12.111 h at week2016, 43 and 12.373 h at week2017, 41 contributed to diapause in 50% of the eggs. Day length was estimated to be the main meteorological factor related to diapause.ConclusionsPhotoperiodic diapause of Ae. albopictus in Guangzhou of China was confirmed and comprehensively elucidated in both the laboratory and the field. Diapause eggs are the main form for overwintering and begin to hatch in large quantities in March in Guangzhou. Furthermore, this study also established an optimized investigation system and statistical models for the study of Ae. albopictus diapause. These findings will contribute to the prevention and control of Ae. albopictus and mosquito-borne diseases.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0466-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.