Climate variability, animal reservoir and transmission of scrub typhus in Southern China

Wei, Yuehong; Huang, Yong; Li, Xiaoning; Ma, Yu; Tao, Xia; Wu, Xinwei; Yang, Zhicong

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005447

Cited by 57 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…In addition, an increase in average monthly temperature from 24.5˚C in 2003 to 25.5˚C in 2018 correlated with an increase in scrub typhus incidence. This finding is also similar to reports from southern China and together, are suggestive of the influence of climate change on disease burden [16,48,49].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

The estimated burden of scrub typhus in Thailand from national surveillance data (2003-2018)

et al. 2020

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BackgroundScrub typhus is a major cause of acute febrile illness in the tropics and is endemic over large areas of the Asia Pacific region. The national and global burden of scrub typhus remains unclear due to limited data and difficulties surrounding diagnosis. Methodology/Principal findingsScrub typhus reporting data from 2003-2018 were collected from the Thai national disease surveillance system. Additional information including the district, sub-district and village of residence, population, geographical, meteorological and satellite imagery data were also collected for Chiangrai, the province with the highest number of reported cases from 2003 . From 2003,345 cases of scrub typhus were reported with the number of reported cases increasing substantially over the observed period. There were more men than women, with agricultural workers the main occupational group affected. The majority of cases occurred in the 15-64 year old age group (72,144/99,543, 72%). Disease burden was greatest in the northern region, accounting for 53% of the total reported cases per year (mean). In the northern region, five provinces-Chiangrai, Chiangmai, Tak, Nan and Mae Hong Son-accounted for 84% (46,927/55,872) of the total cases from the northern region or 45% (46,927/103,345) of cases nationally. The majority of cases occurred from June to November but seasonality was less marked in the southern region. In Chiangrai province, elevation, rainfall, temperature, population size, habitat complexity and diversity of land cover contributed to scrub typhus incidence. PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASESPLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases | https://doi.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

The estimated burden of scrub typhus in Thailand from national surveillance data (2003-2018)

et al. 2020

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“…Illiteracy was a risk factor identified for scrub typhus infection in this area 16 . The increased O. tsutsugamushi IgG seropositivity observed with age can be attributed to repeated and longer duration of exposure, a finding in concordance with various studies from India and from other parts as well 6 17 18 19 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Seroprevalence & seroincidence of Orientia tsutsugamushi infection in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, India: A community-based serosurvey during lean (April-May) & epidemic (October-November) periods for acute encephalitis syndrome

et al. 2020

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Background & objectives: In India, acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) cases are frequently reported from Gorakhpur district in Uttar Pradesh. Scrub typhus is one of the predominant aetiological agents for these cases. In order to delineate the extent of the background of scrub typhus seroprevalence and the associated risk factors at community level, serosurveys during both lean and epidemic periods (phase 1 and phase 2, respectively) of AES outbreaks were conducted in this region. Methods: Two community-based serosurveys were conducted during lean (April-May 2016) and epidemic AES (October-November 2016) periods. A total of 1085 and 906 individuals were enrolled during lean and epidemic AES periods, respectively, from different villages reporting recent AES cases. Scrub typhus-seronegative individuals (n=254) during the lean period were tested again during the epidemic period to estimate the incidence of scrub typhus. Results: The seroprevalence of Orientia tsutsugamushi during AES epidemic period [immunoglobulin (Ig) IgG: 70.8%, IgM: 4.4%] was high as compared to that of lean AES period (IgG: 50.6%, P <0.001; IgM: 3.4%). The factors independently associated with O. tsutsugamushi positivity during lean AES period were female gender, illiteracy, not wearing footwear, not taking bath after work whereas increasing age, close contact with animals, source of drinking water and open-air defecation emerged as additional risk factors during the epidemic AES season. IgM positivity was significantly higher among febrile individuals compared to those without fever (7.7 vs. 3.5%, P =0.006). The seroincidence for O. tsutsugamushi was 19.7 per cent, and the subclinical infection rate was 54 per cent. Interpretation & conclusions: The community-based surveys identified endemicity of O. tsutsugamushi and the associated risk factors in Gorakhpur region. The findings will be helpful for planning appropriate interventional strategies to control scrub typhus.

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“…Finally, the occurrence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been regarded as a risk factor for the outbreak of several infectious diseases, particularly in coastline cities ( Fisman et al. 2016 ; Wei et al. 2017 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China

Zhao

Cao

et al. 2018

Environ Health Perspect

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Background:There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China.Objectives:We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s.Methods:Data on daily HFMD (children 0–14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009–2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions.Results:During 2009–2014, >11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20°C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): −13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: −33.3%, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China.Conclusion:Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0–14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062

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Climate variability, animal reservoir and transmission of scrub typhus in Southern China

Cited by 57 publications

References 28 publications

The estimated burden of scrub typhus in Thailand from national surveillance data (2003-2018)

The estimated burden of scrub typhus in Thailand from national surveillance data (2003-2018)

Seroprevalence & seroincidence of Orientia tsutsugamushi infection in Gorakhpur, Uttar Pradesh, India: A community-based serosurvey during lean (April-May) & epidemic (October-November) periods for acute encephalitis syndrome

Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China

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