Background Because there is no reliable risk stratification tool for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients at admission, we aimed to construct an effective model for early identification of cases at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Methods In this retrospective multicenter study, 372 hospitalized patients with nonsevere COVID-19 were followed for > 15 days after admission. Patients who deteriorated to severe or critical COVID-19 and those who maintained a nonsevere state were assigned to the severe and nonsevere groups, respectively. Based on baseline data of the 2 groups, we constructed a risk prediction nomogram for severe COVID-19 and evaluated its performance. Results The training cohort consisted of 189 patients, and the 2 independent validation cohorts consisted of 165 and 18 patients. Among all cases, 72 (19.4%) patients developed severe COVID-19. Older age; higher serum lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, coefficient of variation of red blood cell distribution width, blood urea nitrogen, and direct bilirubin; and lower albumin were associated with severe COVID-19. We generated the nomogram for early identifying severe COVID-19 in the training cohort (area under the curve [AUC], 0.912 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .846–.978]; sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 87.6%) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.853 [95% CI, .790–.916]; sensitivity 77.5%, specificity 78.4%). The calibration curve for probability of severe COVID-19 showed optimal agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analyses indicated that nomogram conferred high clinical net benefit. Conclusions Our nomogram could help clinicians with early identification of patients who will progress to severe COVID-19, which will enable better centralized management and early treatment of severe disease.

No abstract

Older age; higher LDH, CRP, RDW, DBIL, BUN; lower ALB on admission correlated with higher odds of severe COVID-19. An effective prognostic nomogram composed of 7 features could allow early identification of patients at risk of exacerbation to severe COVID-19. Abstract BackgroundDue to no reliable risk stratification tool for severe corona virus disease 2019 patients at admission, we aimed to construct an effective model for early identifying cases at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19. MethodsIn this retrospective three-centers study, 372 non-severe COVID-19 patients during hospitalization were followed for more than 15 days after admission. Patients who deteriorated to severe or critical COVID-19 and patients who kept non-severe state were assigned to the severe and non-severe group, respectively. Based on baseline data of the two groups, we constructed a risk prediction nomogram for severe COVID-19 and evaluate its performance. ResultsThe train cohort consisted of 189 patients, while the two independent validation cohorts consisted of 165 and 18 patients. Among all cases, 72 (19.35%) patients developed severe COVID-19. We found that old age, and higher serum lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, the coefficient of variation of red blood cell distribution width, blood urea nitrogen, direct bilirubin, lower albumin, are associated with severe COVID-19. We generated the nomogram for early identifying severe COVID-19 in the train cohort (AUC 0.912 [95% CI 0.846-0.978], sensitivity 85.71%, specificity 87.58%); in validation cohort (0.853 [0.790-0.916], 77.5%, 78.4%). The calibration curve for probability of severe COVID-19 showed optimal agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analysis indicated that nomogram conferred high clinical net benefit. ConclusionOur nomogram could help clinicians to early identify patients who will exacerbate to severe COVID-19, which will enable better centralized management and early treatment of severe patients.

B cell response plays a critical role against SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, little is known about the diversity and frequency of the paired SARS-CoV-2 antigen-specific BCR repertoire after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here, we performed single-cell RNA sequencing and VDJ sequencing using the memory and plasma B cells isolated from five convalescent COVID-19 patients, and analyzed the spectrum and transcriptional heterogeneity of antibody immune responses. Via linking BCR to antigen specificity through sequencing (LIBRA-seq), we identified a distinct activated memory B cell subgroup (CD11chighCD95high) had a higher proportion of SARS-CoV-2 antigen-labeled cells compared with memory B cells. Our results revealed the diversity of paired BCR repertoire and the non-stochastic pairing of SARS-CoV-2 antigen-specific immunoglobulin heavy and light chains after SARS-CoV-2 infection. The public antibody clonotypes were shared by distinct convalescent individuals. Moreover, several antibodies isolated by LIBRA-seq showed high binding affinity against SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) or nucleoprotein (NP) via ELISA assay. Two RBD-reactive antibodies C14646P3S and C2767P3S isolated by LIBRA-seq exhibited high neutralizing activities against both pseudotyped and authentic SARS-CoV-2 viruses in vitro. Our study provides fundamental insights into B cell response following SARS-CoV-2 infection at the single-cell level.

Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre-including this research content-immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.