In Germany, there are an estimated 200,000 seats to be filled at the local level in city and municipal councils, city council assemblies, and district councils . It is of fundamental importance for the functioning of local democracy that a sufficient number of candidates can be found for these mandates . Against this background, the recruitment potential of political parties and municipal voters’ associations with regard to candidates for mandates at the local level is examined comparatively . The data basis is a representative population survey conducted as part of the 2017 German Party Membership Study . It is shown that a good quarter of the population can in principle be won over to a candidacy at the munici­pal level . Ten percent would only run for a party, six percent only for a municipal voters’ association and a further ten percent for both political groups . These three candidate poten­tials each have a specific profile regarding their socio-structural composition and their polit­ical attitudes .

Does the probability to join a political party, to become a party functionary, and to leave a party depend on individuals' socioeconomic status? Political parties are central mediating actors between the population and the state; thus, it is reasonable to assume that unequal participation within parties fosters unequal political representation. However, due to data limitations no study has hitherto examined the social selectivity of the whole party membership cycle. We shed light on these issues by analyzing original data from the German Party Membership Study 2017. We find that socially disadvantaged individuals are less likely to become and to stay party members and have a lower proclivity for holding political offices. These effects persist even after controlling for socialpsychological variables and the general incentives for party membership. However, in line with recent findings on voter turnout we show that social selectivity is partly mediated by political efficacy.

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In this paper, the thesis is put forward that selective outcome incentives for party membership gain relevance over time. Two possible mechanisms are identified as the cause of this increase in importance: a supply-side mechanism based on processes of societal change that took place through generational succession and a demand-side mechanism focusing on shifts in the self-image and organizational structure of political parties. The supply-side mechanism should lead to changes in the motives of potential members, whereas the demand-side mechanism alters the incentives potential and current members are exposed to.The empirical analyses are based on the German Party Membership Studies of 1998, 2009 and 2017. These three studies are nationwide representative surveys of the members of the following six parties: Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU), Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), Alliance90/The Greens (Bündnis90/Die Grünen), and The Left (Die Linke). Within the German Party Membership Studies, both the motives for joining the party and the current membership motives are surveyed.Empirically, it is shown that there is indeed an increase in the importance of selective outcome membership motives over the period under study. The mechanisms behind this increase in importance are investigated using multivariate Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models based on the cumulated data of the German Party Membership Studies. These analyses are based on a total of nearly 30,000 cases. The results of the APC analyses are largely consistent with the supply-side explanation of the increased importance of selective outcome motives for party entry and membership. The demand-side explanation is only partially confirmed.

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