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Objective: Understanding long-term disaster effects is key to building theories of recovery and informing policymaking. Findings regarding long-term recovery are inconsistent, with some scholars finding that disasters have little long-term impact, and others asserting otherwise. To assist in resolving this discord, we apply a conceptual framework and computational model of community resilience (“COPEWELL”) that places community functioning (CF) at the center of evaluating the effects of disaster over time. Using flooding as a disaster type, we hypothesize a change in baseline CF trend when a flood-related federally declared disaster event occurs. Methods: We used county-level flood-related federally declared disaster events (2010–2014) and selected population demographics to study their effects on annual CF trends among United States counties (N = 3141). Results: In multivariate analysis of baseline CF, we found a significant negative relationship of prior five-year flood status, federal regions relative to the Northeast (Region I), lower total earnings, and greater population size. Annual CF trend was 0.09% (95%CI: 0.01%–0.16%). In multivariate analysis, significant predictors included baseline CF (β = 0.0178, −0.0047–−0.0309), any concurrent flood-related federally declared disaster events (−0.0024, −0.0040–−0.0008), ten-year prior flood events (−0.0017, −0.0034–−0.0000) and concurrent population change (−0.0186, −0.0338–−0.0035). Conclusions: Recent floods depress baseline CF, while concurrent and ten-year-ago floods depress trend in CF. Resilience may potentially be modified by raising baseline CF and maintaining population over time.

The Disaster Research Center (DRC) was founded in 1963 to help American government decision makers understand how citizens would respond in times of crisis. Since then, DRC personnel have embarked upon some 700 quick-response deployments to better understand the social and physical aspects of disaster mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. This research has taken DRC faculty and students around the world, from New York City, conducting research that explored and documented the city’s response to and recovery from 9/11, to the Kathmandu Valley to better understand mothering during disaster evacuation after the 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Relevant to the academy, practitioners, and the public, DRC is available to lend its expertise to answer the most pressing questions in disaster science.

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