SignificanceSystems biology seeks to combine experiments with computation to predict biological behaviors. However, despite tremendous data and knowledge, biological models make less-accurate predictions compared with other fields. By analyzing single-cell, single-molecule measurements of mRNA during yeast stress response, we explore why and how the shapes of experimental distributions control prediction accuracy. We show how asymmetric data distributions with long tails cause standard modeling approaches to yield excellent fits but make meaningless predictions. We show how these biases arise from the violation of fundamental assumptions in standard modeling approaches. We demonstrate how advanced computational tools solve this dilemma and achieve predictive understanding of spatiotemporal mechanisms of transcription control including RNA polymerase initiation and elongation and mRNA accumulation, transport, and decay.

The production and degradation of RNA transcripts is inherently subject to biological noise that arises from small gene copy numbers in individual cells. As a result, cellular RNA levels can exhibit large fluctuations over time and from one cell to the next. This article presents a range of precise single-molecule experimental techniques, based upon RNA fluorescence in situ hybridization, which can be used to measure the fluctuations of RNA at the single-cell level. A class of models for gene activation and deactivation is postulated in order to capture complex stochastic effects of chromatin modifications or transcription factor interactions. A computational tool, known the Finite State Projection approach, is introduced to accurately and efficiently analyze these models in order to predict how probability distributions of RNA change over time in response to changing environmental conditions. These single-molecule experiments, discrete stochastic models, and computational analyses are systematically integrated to identify models of gene regulation dynamics. To illustrate the power and generality of our integrated experimental and computational approach, we explore cases that include different models for three different RNA types (sRNA, mRNA and nascent RNA), three different experimental techniques and three different biological species (bacteria, yeast and human cells).

Transcription factors (TFs) interact with a multitude of binding sites on DNA and partner proteins inside cells. We investigate how nonspecific binding/unbinding to such decoy binding sites affects the magnitude and time-scale of random fluctuations in TF copy numbers arising from stochastic gene expression. A stochastic model of TF gene expression, together with decoy site interactions is formulated. Distributions for the total (bound and unbound) and free (unbound) TF levels are derived by analytically solving the chemical master equation under physiologically relevant assumptions. Our results show that increasing the number of decoy binding sides considerably reduces stochasticity in free TF copy numbers. The TF autocorrelation function reveals that decoy sites can either enhance or shorten the time-scale of TF fluctuations depending on model parameters. To understand how noise in TF abundances propagates downstream, a TF target gene is included in the model. Intriguingly, we find that noise in the expression of the target gene decreases with increasing decoy sites for linear TF-target protein dose-responses, even in regimes where decoy sites enhance TF autocorrelation times. Moreover, counterintuitive noise transmissions arise for nonlinear dose-responses. In summary, our study highlights the critical role of molecular sequestration by decoy binding sites in regulating the stochastic dynamics of TFs and target proteins at the single-cell level.

Emerging techniques now allow for precise quantification of distributions of biological molecules in single cells. These rapidly advancing experimental methods have created a need for more rigorous and efficient modeling tools. Here, we derive new bounds on the likelihood that observations of single-cell, single-molecule responses come from a discrete stochastic model, posed in the form of the chemical master equation. These strict upper and lower bounds are based on a finite state projection approach, and they converge monotonically to the exact likelihood value. These bounds allow one to discriminate rigorously between models and with a minimum level of computational effort. In practice, these bounds can be incorporated into stochastic model identification and parameter inference routines, which improve the accuracy and efficiency of endeavors to analyze and predict single-cell behavior. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach using simulated data for three example models as well as for experimental measurements of a time-varying stochastic transcriptional response in yeast. Published by AIP Publishing. [http://dx

Modern optical imaging experiments not only measure single-cell and single-molecule dynamics with high precision, but they can also perturb the cellular environment in myriad controlled and novel settings. Techniques, such as single-molecule fluorescence in-situ hybridization, microfluidics, and optogenetics, have opened the door to a large number of potential experiments, which begs the question of how to choose the best possible experiment. The Fisher information matrix (FIM) estimates how well potential experiments will constrain model parameters and can be used to design optimal experiments. Here, we introduce the finite state projection (FSP) based FIM, which uses the formalism of the chemical master equation to derive and compute the FIM. The FSP-FIM makes no assumptions about the distribution shapes of single-cell data, and it does not require precise measurements of higher order moments of such distributions. We validate the FSP-FIM against well-known Fisher information results for the simple case of constitutive gene expression. We then use numerical simulations to demonstrate the use of the FSP-FIM to optimize the timing of single-cell experiments with more complex, non-Gaussian fluctuations. We validate optimal simulated experiments determined using the FSP-FIM with Monte-Carlo approaches and contrast these to experiment designs chosen by traditional analyses that assume Gaussian fluctuations or use the central limit theorem. By systematically designing experiments to use all of the measurable fluctuations, our method enables a key step to improve co-design of experiments and quantitative models.