The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time‐step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed‐phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid‐to‐high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate‐calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol‐cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.
The idea of modifying cirrus clouds to directly counteract greenhouse gas warming has gained momentum in recent years, despite disputes over its physical feasibility. Previous studies that analyzed modifications of cirrus clouds by seeding of ice nucleating particles showed large uncertainties in both cloud and surface climate responses, ranging from no effect or even a small warming to a globally averaged cooling of about 2.5°C. We use two general circulation models that showed very different responses in previous studies, ECHAM6-HAM and CESM-CAM5, to determine which radiative and climatic responses to cirrus cloud seeding in a 1.5×CO 2 world are common and which are not. Seeding reduces the net cirrus radiative effect for −1.8 W m −2 in CESM compared with only −0.8 W m −2 in ECHAM. Accordingly, the surface temperature decrease is larger in CESM, counteracting about 70% of the global mean temperature increase due to CO 2 and only 30% in ECHAM. While seeding impacts on mean precipitation were addressed in past studies, we are the first to analyze extreme precipitation responses to cirrus seeding. Seeding decreases the frequency of the most extreme precipitation globally. However, the extreme precipitation events occur more frequently in the Sahel and Central America, following the mean precipitation increase due to a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In addition, we use a quadratic climate damage metric to evaluate the amount of CO 2 -induced damage cirrus seeding can counteract. Seeding decreases the damage by about 50% in ECHAM, and by 85% in CESM over the 21 selected land regions. Climate damage due to CO 2 increase is significantly reduced as a result of seeding in all of the considered land regions.
Airborne mineral dust influences cloud occurrence and optical properties, which may provide a pathway for recent and future changes in dust concentration to alter the temperature at Earth's surface. However, despite prior suggestions that dust‐cloud interactions are an important control on the Earth's radiation balance, we find global mean cloud radiative effects to be insensitive to widespread dust changes. Here we simulate uniformly applied shifts in dust amount in a present‐day atmosphere using a version of the CAM5 atmosphere model (within CESM v1.2.2) modified to incorporate laboratory‐based ice nucleation parameterizations in stratiform clouds. Increasing and decreasing dustiness from current levels to paleoclimate extremes caused effective radiative forcings through clouds of +0.02 ± 0.01 and −0.05 ± 0.02 W/m2, respectively, with ranges of −0.26 to +0.13 W/m2 and −0.21 to +0.39 W/m2 from sensitivity tests. Our simulations suggest that these forcings are limited by several factors. Longwave and shortwave impacts largely cancel, particularly in mixed‐phase clouds, while in warm and cirrus clouds opposite responses between regions further reduce each global forcing. Additionally, changes in dustiness cause opposite forcings through aerosol indirect effects in mixed‐phase clouds as in cirrus, while in warm clouds indirect effects are weak at nearly all locations. Nevertheless, regional forcings and global impacts on longwave and shortwave radiation were found to be nonnegligible, suggesting that cloud‐mediated dust effects have significance in simulations of present and future climate.
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