The article considers the influence of climate variability (precipitation and air temperature) on the yield of grain crops in Northern Kazakhstan. The paper uses data from some weather stations in the Northern regions of Kazakhstan, located in the main grain-growing zone. Because of the research, the dependence of grain yield on temperature and humidity for specific years of the last decades has been revealed. With an increase in precipitation, there is an increase in productivity in the North Kazakhstan and Kostanay regions, and the decrease in precipitation has a greater impact on the decrease in productivity in the Akmola and Pavlodar regions. Using the regression equation, the dependence of grain yield on the variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Akmola region (for the Esil weather station), a retrospective analysis was performed with the restoration of yield values for 1969-2019. The results of comparing the restored and the true (actual) yield showed a good correlation-0.84, which confirmed the reliability of the values. There are quite close relationships between the decrease in yield at high summer temperatures with reduced humidity, and the increase in yield at low summer temperatures, which is typical for the steppe and forest-steppe regions of Northern Kazakhstan. The yield of grain crops in the Akmola region, in the area of the Esil weather station, was affected by 72% by moisture, and 28% by other factors.

The development of the agricultural sector, which provides the population with basic types of food products, is of great importance for the country’s economy. The main branches of agriculture include plant growing and animal husbandry, the effective development of which is of economic but also of significant economic and social importance. The main areas of crop production are represented by grain, vegetable farms and the cultivation of fodder crops. Of great importance for the effective cultivation of crops with sustainable crops is the farming system that is maximally adapted to local climatic and landscape conditions. In work, the ecological potential of phytocenoses was estimated, taking into account the peculiarities of the territorial distribution of heat and water resources in the south of Western Siberia. The necessity of comparing the specific ecological potential of phytocenoses with a possible technogenic load in order to ensure the stability of its functioning is shown.

The basis for planning the activities of the agro-industrial complex and justifying their development in the future is the availability of natural resources. Water resources are an important component of the natural resource potential of the region, playing a key role in the development of an integrated agricultural economy. In determining the environmental sustainability of water bodies, the study of quantitative indicators of moisture resources and their spatial and temporal variability is of paramount importance. The correct presentation of resources and natural water reserves is the key to the successful development of economic sectors and the basis for the geo-ecological substantiation of the territory. A feature of the water resource potential of the Omsk region is the uneven distribution of atmospheric humidification over the territory, which, together with seasonal and long-term fluctuations, can serve as the basis for the manifestation of negative consequences of water. The paper analyzes the alternation of wet and dry years in the long-term period and their influence on the moisture content of the territory. Based on abbreviated summary curves, the duration of periods of continuous dry and wet years are shown, and the trend of long-term changes in the amount of precipitation in the study area.

The Nura River basin is located on the territory of Central Kazakhstan and is a single territorial-production structure with a developed industry that plays an important role in the economy of the entire Kazakhstan. Effective industrial development should be based on the well-tailored farming industry. However, significant continentality of the target basin, along with orographic conditions, predetermines high heat and power and scarce water resources, which negatively affect the crop productivity. The paper analyzes the current status of land reserves nearby the Nura River basin, with due account for climatic conditions and water availability, considers the modern composition and structure of cultivated areas, indicating the leading sectors constituting the farming industry, and also outlines the main directions and prospects for the development of agriculture for the coming period. It provides the rationale for sustainable agriculture along with industrial development of the basin. Due to the location of the basin in the zone of dry steppes and semi-desert zones, the paper shows the need to use irrigation reclamation as the main way to increase the crop yield.

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