The development of the agricultural sector and the entire national economy of Russia at the present stage is determined by the key realities of globalization trends and the mechanism of adaptation to them. The current confrontation of the interests of world powers under the influence of sanctions against Russia, which is a new form of global political and economic transformation, requires increased use of tools and mechanisms for state regulation of socio-economic processes, the main of which is strategic planning. The system of state planning has always been and remains the most important tool for justifying agricultural policy, both at the Federal and regional levels, which determines the search for the main trajectory of economic development of agricultural production sectors. The article deals with the deep causes of the protracted systemic crisis in the agricultural sector of the country’s economy. It is revealed that the lack of effective science-based tools of the state management system is becoming the main factor hindering the development of the country’s agricultural production sector. It is established that in the new Russian reality, state management of the agricultural sector of the economy should be based on its key function – strategic planning. The necessity of implementing a systematic campaign in planning is justified. Methodological aspects of the development and implementation of program-target planning in agriculture in Russia allowed us to identify the main shortcomings of the modern practice of planning and forecasting. The necessity of developing a strategy for the development of agriculture in the new macroeconomic conditions is justified. The developed model of a modern strategic planning system based on an integrated approach, including concepts, forecasts, economic orientation, plans, programs, excludes the possibility of fragmented planning and forecast management of the agricultural sector of the economy.

The research concept consists in the development of theoretical and empirical approaches for analysis and assessment of Russian agricultural production development trends in the context of exportoriented strategy implementation in the agro-industrial complex. The research is conducted using complex of methods of mathematical modeling in economics, including extrapolation methods (linear and non-linear trend models for analyzing the time dynamics of production and economic variables), scenario forecasting, Delphi approach. The projected parameters of the export potential of Russian agricultural production are developed and represented in the paper. Based on the data of 2009-2018, the development state is analyzed and trends become visible of the farm stock structure by farming categories in the Russian Federation and staple food production, including meat, milk, vegetables, potatoes, grain and sunflower. Three forecasting scenarios of staple food production per capita in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 are developed and proved (base case, best-case and worst-casescenarios).

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