Abstract-With recent developments in the infrastructure of smart meters and smart grid, more electric power data is available and allows real time easy data access. Modeling individual home appliance loads is important for tasks such as non-intrusive load disaggregation, load forecasting, and demand response support. Previous methods usually require sub-metering individual appliances in a home separately to determine the appliance models, which may not be practical, since we may only be able to observe aggregated real power signals for the entire-home through smart meters deployed in the field. In this paper, we propose a model, named Explicit-Duration Hidden Markov Model with differential observations (EDHMM-diff), for detecting and estimating individual home appliance loads from aggregated power signals collected by ordinary smart meters. Experiments on synthetic data and real data demonstrate that the EDHMM-diff model and the specialized forward-backward algorithm can effectively model major home appliance loads.

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Discovering and extracting linear trends and correlations in datasets is very important for analysts to understand multivariate phenomena. However, current widely used multivariate visualization techniques, such as parallel coordinates and scatterplot matrices, fail to reveal and illustrate such linear relationships intuitively, especially when more than 3 variables are involved or multiple trends coexist in the dataset. We present a novel multivariate model parameter space visualization system that helps analysts discover single and multiple linear patterns and extract subsets of data that fit a model well. Using this system, analysts are able to explore and navigate in model parameter space, interactively select and tune patterns, and refine the model for accuracy using computational techniques. We build connections between model space and data space visually, allowing analysts to employ their domain knowledge during exploration to better interpret the patterns they discover and their validity. Case studies with real datasets are used to investigate the effectiveness of the visualizations.