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Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious, arthropod-borne virus that affects mostly cattle. Solitary outbreaks have occurred in Israel in 1989 and 2006. In both years, the outbreaks occurred parallel to a severe outbreak in Egypt, and LSDV was hypothesized to be transmitted from Egypt to Israel via long-distance dispersal (LDD) of infected vectors by wind. The aim of this study was to identify possible events of such transport. At the first stage, we identified the relevant synoptic systems that allowed wind transport from Egypt to Israel during the 3 months preceding each outbreak. Three-dimensional backwards Lagrangian trajectories were calculated from the receptor sites in Israel for each occurrence of such relevant synoptic system. The analysis revealed several events in which atmospheric connection routes between the affected locations in Egypt and Israel were established. Specifically, during the 1989, Damietta and Port Said stand out as likely sources for the outbreak in Israel. In 2006, different locations acted simultaneously as potential sources of the outbreak in Israel. These locations were situated in the Nile delta, the Suez Canal and in northern Sinai. The analysis pointed out Sharav low and Shallow Cyprus low to the North to be the most likely systems to enable windborne transport from Egypt to Israel. These findings are of high importance for the analysis of the risk of transmission of vectorborne viruses in the eastern Mediterranean region.

Highlights Israel has led a successful mitigation policy until mid-March 2020. The policy collapsed abruptly following a holiday of public gatherings. Analysis: transmission chains, local to imported cases time series and SEQIJR dynamical model. No evidence for significant contribution of super-spreaders. Even short lapse in public responsiveness can dramatically affect public health.

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