Using Synoptic Systems’ Typical Wind Trajectories for the Analysis of Potential Atmospheric Long-Distance Dispersal of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious, arthropod-borne virus that affects mostly cattle. Solitary outbreaks have occurred in Israel in 1989 and 2006. In both years, the outbreaks occurred parallel to a severe outbreak in Egypt, and LSDV was hypothesized to be transmitted from Egypt to Israel via long-distance dispersal (LDD) of infected vectors by wind. The aim of this study was to identify possible events of such transport. At the first stage, we identified the relevant synoptic systems that allowed wind transport from Egypt to Israel during the 3 months preceding each outbreak. Three-dimensional backwards Lagrangian trajectories were calculated from the receptor sites in Israel for each occurrence of such relevant synoptic system. The analysis revealed several events in which atmospheric connection routes between the affected locations in Egypt and Israel were established. Specifically, during the 1989, Damietta and Port Said stand out as likely sources for the outbreak in Israel. In 2006, different locations acted simultaneously as potential sources of the outbreak in Israel. These locations were situated in the Nile delta, the Suez Canal and in northern Sinai. The analysis pointed out Sharav low and Shallow Cyprus low to the North to be the most likely systems to enable windborne transport from Egypt to Israel. These findings are of high importance for the analysis of the risk of transmission of vectorborne viruses in the eastern Mediterranean region.

Lumpy skin disease: scientific and technical assistance on control and surveillance activities

“…Egypt to Israel), then suggesting that transport of Stomoxys by wind currents over long distances and infection by the virus at their point of arrival may occur in 24 h (Klausner et al, 2015). Egypt to Israel), then suggesting that transport of Stomoxys by wind currents over long distances and infection by the virus at their point of arrival may occur in 24 h (Klausner et al, 2015).…”

Source-receptor probability of atmospheric long-distance dispersal of viruses to Israel from the eastern Mediterranean area

“…The major area in Egypt, indicated as possible source by this study, includes the Nile delta and the Suez Canal. It was suggested, based on circumstantial evidence, that these regions served as sources of LDD of pathogens to Israel in several instances (Garrett‐Jones, ; Klausner et al, ). The area in Turkey, indicated in this study as a possible source, lies in the south of this country, as well as the locations in Turkey that were associated with a past LDD event of pathogen spread to Israel (Aziz‐Boaron et al., ).…”

“…The receptor location was chosen to be kibbutz Ein‐Tzurim ( x r , y r )=(31°42′N, 34°43′E), which was the site of lumpy skin disease outbreak in 2006 that has most likely began following a LDD event in which blood‐feeding arthropods that arrived from Egypt have mechanically transmitted lumpy skin disease virus to susceptible cattle in the herd of Ein‐Tzurim (Klausner et al, ; Magori‐Cohen et al., ). The altitude of arrival, z r , was 1,000 m above ground level (AGL).…”

“…Regarding the wind‐aided long‐distance travel of insects, LTs are associated with the cruising stage of the journey, in which the insects use their autonomous flight ability to remain close to the centre of faster airstreams (where the mean horizontal wind speed is maximal) rather than in their edges (Reynolds, Reynolds, & Riley, ; Wood, O'Connor, Hurley, Reynolds, & Illingworth, ; Wood et al., ; Wood, Reynolds et al., ). Circumstantial evidence suggests that LTs are capable of collecting dust particles and pathogen infected insects along their path and carry them over long distances (Aziz‐Boaron et al., ; Kalderon‐Asael, Erel, Sandler, & Dayan, ; Klausner, Fattal, & Klement, ).…”

“…When these systems prevailed, several LDD events which enabled the transport of infected vectors to the outbreak sites in Israel from Egypt could have occurred. Specifically, the analysis pointed out likely source locations: Damietta and Port Said on Egypt's Mediterranean for the 1989 outbreak and Ismailia on the bank of the Suez Canal for the 2006 outbreak (Klausner et al, ). Theoretical analysis has also shown that these locations can serve as sources for the spread of airborne foot‐and‐mouth disease virus to Israel, given the appropriate atmospheric conditions, the abundance of adequate hosts and a sufficiently large outbreak of foot‐and‐mouth disease (Klausner, Klement, & Fattal, ).…”