Global warming is associated with substantial increases in heatwave frequency, duration, and amplitude over Southeast Asia. The increase of heatwave amplitude with global mean temperature is quasilinear, and that of heatwave frequency and duration are nonlinear. A warmer future will see a higher risk ratio with rarer extreme heatwave events relative to the current climate.
Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave from late June to early July 2021, which lies far outside the historical range. Based on the model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that the likelihood of a heatwave over WNA similar to the 2021 one increases with global warming. Such a heatwave is projected to occur more frequently with increased extreme temperature and shortened return period. It means that a rare event in the current climate will be a more common event in a warmer climate, especially under a high‐emission scenario like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 (SSP5‐8.5). Moreover, we show a large expansion of areas over WNA that will break the 2021 record in the future with an increasing level of emission scenario. Nevertheless, some heatwave records west of the Rocky Mountains are still difficult to break, highlighting the specific extremity of the 2021 WNA heatwave.
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