No abstract

Large herbivores, particularly in water limited systems, are vulnerable to the impacts of poaching (illegal hunting) and human-induced climate changes. However, we have little understanding of how these processes can reshape their populations. With some rapidly declining populations there is a need to understand the effects of these stressors on populations of vulnerable large herbivores like the white rhino (Ceratotherium simum simum). We developed age-structured models for the rhino population in Kruger National Park, home to 49% of South Africa's rhinos. We wanted to determine the relative influence of poaching and climate on the current and future population size and demographics, examine the potential of a dependency effect (the loss of calves from poached females) and quantify the compound effect (loss of future young). Our results indicated that population declines were largely driven by poaching and included a dependency effect. Rainfall had a measurable but smaller influence on rhino populations and had an additive effect; reduced rainfall exacerbated poaching losses. Current poaching levels have resulted in a reduction to the lifetime reproductive output per cow from approximately 6 to 0.7 calves: a compound effect of 5.3 future offspring. Under current levels of poaching, we project a 35% decline in the Kruger rhino population in the next 10 years. However, if poaching intensity is cut in half, we project a doubling of the current population over the same time frame. Overall, our models showed little sensitivity to demographic and environmental parameters, except for adult survival. Our results suggest that maintaining and improving the lifetime reproductive output of rhino cows should thus be the highest management priority and that new management targets should consider both the dependency and compound effects associated with poaching on rhino cows.

Black rhinoceroses (Diceros bicornis) are endangered and the southern-central sub-species (Diceros bicornis minor) is considered critically endangered. We assessed the reproductive lifehistories of black rhinoceroses in Hluhluwe–iMfolozi Park (HiP), KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to determine whether this historically important donor sub-population was meeting regional reproductive targets. Detailed life-history information for known individuals (n = 79–120) was used to investigate reproductive parameters between 1998 and 2013. Mean age at sexual maturity was 12 years, which exceeded a target period of 7 years and 5 months. The mean inter-calving interval was 3 years and 8 months – 8 months longer than the recommended 3 years. The poor population performance of the HiP black rhinoceroses could be a result of poor habitat quality, poor animal condition, females losing their first calves, predation of calves or a negative social effect of annual live-harvesting of the population. However, we believe that the estimated ecological carrying capacity of black rhinoceroses at HiP (a figure used to ascertain whether the population can be harvested at all) may be incorrect, leading to the poor reproductive performance. We recommend that the accuracy of the ecological carrying capacity estimate be assessed as a matter of urgency and that a moratorium be placed on the live-harvesting of individuals until the estimate has been refined.Conservation implications: Our results provide key data which can be used to refine black rhinoceros breeding targets in South Africa and the region more broadly

In an era of rapid environmental change, human–wildlife interactions (HWIs) are increasingly complex and pervasive across ecosystems. Negative outcomes from such interactions continue to warrant much attention, given their implications for conservation and human livelihoods. However, framing HWIs solely along a coexistence–conflict continuum is overly simplistic because coexistence is not devoid of conflict and negates the temporal dynamics of potential outcomes. Furthermore, without thorough consideration of governing principles, HWIs will persistently result in negative outcomes and a skewed perspective within the scientific community and among the public. Here we argue that incorporating the principles of responsibility, equity, justice, and inclusion (REJI) into conservation‐oriented activities can influence the intensity, severity, and duration of negative outcomes throughout the HWI life cycle. The conceptual framework we present both complements and expands assessment and anticipation of HWI outcomes, which are inherently contingent on scientific practice, cultural sensitivity, and interdisciplinary approaches.