With its target of becoming a middle-income country by 2025, Ethiopia has set ambitious targets in its Growth Transformation Plan (GTP) II, such as increasing power generation capacity from 4.18 to 17.21 GW during the 2016-2020 period. However, according to the 2015 IEA energy balance table, Ethiopia depends heavily on biomass for its final energy use. In final energy service sectors, biomass takes more than 90% of the final energy consumption (36.9 out of 40.9 MTOE), 99% of which is consumed in the residential sector. Therefore, it is very important to achieve biomass utilization in the energy sector targets of Ethiopia. This paper aims to analyze the biomass consumption in the Ethiopia energy system, and discuss related policies. An integrated assessment model is chosen for its national energy modeling, and to simulate policy scenarios in a comprehensive and consistent manner. After building a reference case, three scenarios are developed: (1) higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and urbanization rate, (2) efficiency improvement of biomass technologies, and (3) sensitivity analysis of urbanization. It is found that biomass still holds the largest share of energy consumption in the future, which increases even more in the high GDP and urbanization scenario. Increasing efficiency of biomass technology can reduce biomass consumption, but the "rebound effect" is observed, which increases the energy service demand, thus dampening the effect of biomass efficiency improvement.
Transportation sector in Southeast Asia is highly dependent on petroleum products, making it one of the most carbon-intensive energy sectors in the region. The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO6) projected the sector’s oil consumption to rapidly grow to 330 million ton of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2040 or about 97% from total energy consumed in the sector. Mostly imported, the ever-increasing oil demand poses risk to economic and energy security. The growing concern of climate change also brings another issue to the sector. Cleaner mobility alternatives include electric vehicle. This study aims to assess the readiness of electric mobility roll-out in Southeast Asia, especially from supporting policy perspective. It critically reviews the related policies from each ASEAN member states. Further, the PEST (Political, Economic, Social, Technological) framework is utilised to assess the readiness of such policies. Based on such analysis and identification of critical factors of electric mobility implementation, the study proposes policy recommendations.
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