One of the variants of the basic concepts of methodology and technology for the development of real objects’ and processes’ mathematical models and the assessment of the expected efficiency of these models, as well as the ratio and interconnection of the methodology concepts and the contradictions of modeling, which are one of the reasons for failures in the development of models, are presented. The technological foundations of the obviously useful models development with a simultaneous forecast of their effectiveness indicators values are systematized: reliability, efficiency, completeness of modeling, the usefulness of the developed model relative to the existing one and in comparison with the ideal model. An expression is given for predicting the time expense on developing a model.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

The purpose of the article was to find the inner properties and regularities of anti-aircraft missile grouping’s air defense battle, and based on these regularities to develop and evaluate the adequacy of models as tools for forecasting the results of a battle. To achieve the goal, an example of a real battle and a special model development method were used. The method made it possible to identify the main properties and the inner law of battle, to select a statistically valid mathematical modeling tool in the class of Markov processes with continuous time and discrete states, to develop the desired models with an analytical representation of the inner law of battle, to check their adequacy and to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting by models using the example of a real air defense battle.