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For species to stay temporally tuned to their environment, they use cues such as the accumulation of degree-days. The relationships between the timing of a phenological event in a population and its environmental cue can be described by a population-level reaction norm. Variation in reaction norms along environmental gradients may either intensify the environmental effects on timing (cogradient variation) or attenuate the effects (countergradient variation). To resolve spatial and seasonal variation in species’ response, we use a unique dataset of 91 taxa and 178 phenological events observed across a network of 472 monitoring sites, spread across the nations of the former Soviet Union. We show that compared to local rates of advancement of phenological events with the advancement of temperature-related cues (i.e., variation within site over years), spatial variation in reaction norms tend to accentuate responses in spring (cogradient variation) and attenuate them in autumn (countergradient variation). As a result, among-population variation in the timing of events is greater in spring and less in autumn than if all populations followed the same reaction norm regardless of location. Despite such signs of local adaptation, overall phenotypic plasticity was not sufficient for phenological events to keep exact pace with their cues—the earlier the year, the more did the timing of the phenological event lag behind the timing of the cue. Overall, these patterns suggest that differences in the spatial versus temporal reaction norms will affect species’ response to climate change in opposite ways in spring and autumn.

We present an extensive, large-scale, long-term and multitaxon database on phenological and climatic variation, involving 506,186 observation dates acquired in 471 localities in Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan. the data cover the period 1890-2018, with 96% of the data being from 1960 onwards. The database is rich in plants, birds and climatic events, but also includes insects, amphibians, reptiles and fungi. the database includes multiple events per species, such as the onset days of leaf unfolding and leaf fall for plants, and the days for first spring and last autumn occurrences for birds. The data were acquired using standardized methods by permanent staff of national parks and nature reserves (87% of the data) and members of a phenological observation network (13% of the data). The database is valuable for exploring how species respond in their phenology to climate change. Large-scale analyses of spatial variation in phenological response can help to better predict the consequences of species and community responses to climate change. #A full list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper. Data DeSCRiptOR OpeNScientific Data | (2020) 7:47 | https://doi.

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The article develops the author’s methodology for assessing the rates of socio-economic development and their forecasting in the Russian Federation, which makes it possible to consider factors with heterogeneous metrics. For this, an index analysis of thirty-two indicators divided into seven macro-regional blocks (income, labor, business, ecology, society, prospects, finance) was carried out, integral indicators were calculated that characterize their changes and the pace of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation was determined. Further, using the means of mathematical modeling, a multifactorial mathematical model was built and tested in real-time, which makes it possible to obtain a high-quality predicted result. Based on the forecasts obtained, it can be stated that it is necessary to adjust certain indicators that actively influence the pace of development, which is a mathematical justification for making managerial decisions when developing strategies and programs related to socio-economic progress in the Russian Federation.