Abstract. We present a general concept of mechanisms of preseismic phenomena in the atmosphere and ionosphere. After short review of observational results we conclude: 1. Upward migration of fluid substrate matter (bubble) can lead to ousting of the hot water/gas near the ground surface and cause an earthquake (EQ) itself in the strength-weakened area; 2. Thus, time and place of the bubble appearance could be random values, but EQ, geochemistry anomaly and foreshocks (seismic, SA and ULF electromagnetic ones) are casually connected; 3. Atmospheric perturbation of temperature and density could follow preseismic hot water/gas release resulting in generation of atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) with periods in a range of 6-60 min; 4. Seismoinduced AGW could lead to modification of the ionospheric turbulence and to the change of over-horizon radio-wave propagation in the atmosphere, perturbation of LF waves in the lower ionosphere and ULF emission depression at the ground.

An advanced 3‐D numerical model of lightning development is presented. The key features of the model include the probabilistic branching, bidirectional propagation, nonzero internal electric field, simultaneous growth of multiple branches, physical timing, channel decay, and, for the first time, probabilistic propagation field threshold. The new model can be used for computing electrical parameters of individual branches, including conductivity, current, and longitudinal electric field, each as a function of time, in different parts of the discharge tree. For illustrative purposes, the model was applied to studying the occurrence of lightning flashes of different type depending on the cloud charge structure, with emphasis on the lower positive charge region (LPCR). We demonstrated with the new model that the presence of relatively large (excessive) LPCR can prevent the occurrence of negative CG flashes by “blocking” the progression of descending negative leader from reaching ground. The blocking effect of excessive LPCR was found to occur when the vertical component of electric field near the cloud bottom was negative (downward directed). Further, we showed that significant reduction or absence of LPCR can eliminate the possibility of negative CG flashes and lead to normal‐polarity IC flashes instead. The model predicts the polarity‐asymmetry, which suggests that the amount of collected charge depends not only on the number of branches but also on the dynamics of their conductivity (lifetime) and the local cloud charge density.

We have investigated the fractal dynamics of intracloud microdischarges responsible for the formation of a so-called drainage system of electric charge transport inside a cloud volume. Microdischarges are related to the nonlinear stage of multiflow instability development, which leads to the generation of a small-scale intracloud electric structure. The latter is modeled by using a two-dimensional lattice of finite-state automata. The results of numerical simulations show that the developed drainage system belongs to the percolation-cluster family. We then point out the parameter region relevant to the proposed model, in which the thundercloud exhibits behavior corresponding to a regime of self-organized criticality. The initial development and statistical properties of dynamic conductive clusters are investigated, and a kinetic equation is introduced, which permits us to find state probabilities of electric cells and to estimate macroscopic parameters of the system.

We propose a scenario in which elevated ionic conductivity regions (EICRs) with dimensions of the order of 0.1-1 m are formed in the turbulent thundercloud environment. The starting point in this scenario is the occurrence of electron avalanches in the vicinity of colliding hydrometeors, leading to the formation of ion production centers. Their dimensions are of the order of 10 À3 À 10 À2 m, and their lifetime is of the order of 10 À4 À 10 À3 s. When a new ion production center is created inside the decimeter-scale residual ion concentration spot left behind by a previously established center, the local ion concentration steadily increases, which leads to the formation of decimeter-scale EICRs whose lifetime is measured in seconds. The relatively high conductivity of EICRs (up to 10 À9 S/m or so) relative to the background conductivity (10 À14 S/m or less) ensures their polarization in external electric field within a few milliseconds or so. The EICR formation mechanism requires only one condition: the rate of occurrence of ion production centers per unit time in a unit volume should exceed the percolation-theory-based critical level of 10 À1 m À3 s À1 . Hydrometeor collision rates three and even four orders of magnitude higher than this value have been reported from observations. Presence of EICRs in the cloud provides local electric field enhancements and pre-ionization levels that will lead to the formation of additional ion production centers and may be sufficient for the initiation and development of streamers and, eventually, lightning.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2019) 2:46 ; https://doi.