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The Turkestan lynx (Lynx lynx isabellina Blyth, 1847) is a rare and understudied subspecies of the Eurasian lynx occupying the mountains of Central and South Asia. This elusive felid’s northwestern range includes the Tien Shan and Zhetisu Alatau mountains in the border region of Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As the first step to conserve this vulnerable carnivore, we have conducted the first full-scale research from 2013 until 2022 on its distribution in this region. Using 132 environmental predictors of 359 lynx sightings, we have created species habitat distribution models across the lynx’s northwestern range using machine learning approaches (Maximum Entropy—MaxEnt). Additionally, we created species distribution forecasts based on seven bio-climatic environmental predictors with each three different future global climate model scenarios. To validate these forecasts, we have calculated the changes in the lynx distribution range for the year 2100, making the first species distribution forecast for the Turkestan lynx in the area. Additionally, it provides insight into the possible effects of global climate change on this lynx population. Based on these distribution models, the lynx population in the Northern and Western Tien Shan and Zhetisu Alatau plays a significant role in maintaining the stability of the whole subspecies in its northwestern and global range, while the distribution forecast shows that most lynx distribution ranges will reduce in all future climate scenarios, and we might face the Turkestan lynx’s significant distribution range decline under the ongoing and advancing climate change conditions. For a future (year 2100) warming scenario of 3 deg. C (GCM IPSL), we observe a decrease of 35% in Kazakhstan, 40% in Kyrgyzstan, and 30% in China as the three countries with the highest current predicted distribution range. For a milder temperature increase of 1.5–2 deg. C. (GCM MRI), we observe an increase of 17% Kazakhstan, decrease of 10% in Kyrgyzstan, and 57% in China. For a cooling scenario of approx. 1–1.5 deg. C (GCM MIROC), we observe a decrease of 14% Kazakhstan, increase of 11% in Kyrgyzstan, and a decrease of 13% in China. These modeled declines indicate the necessity to create new and expand the existing protected areas and establish ecological corridors between the countries in Central and South Asia.

Transforming relationship between neopatrimonial state and business in Russia are examined from the perspectives of sustainable development and “networkisation” of the business. We consider it on the basis of the innovation clusters formation as regional collaborative communities, the transition to Cluster Governance model as a new advanced form of the innovation process organisation, and environment factors of this transition. As a factor holding back this transition in Russia, the dominance of the “technocratic” approach to digitalisation of public administration is noted with an underestimation of the environment and human factors and the mechanisms of informal correction of power- bureaucratic decisions. In the context of ensuring the economic development sustainability the following effect is important: reducing cluster governance to traditional management due to the fact that the cluster is transformed into a vertically integrated holding, which is a reduction of the pluralistic and heterogeneous structure to a monistic and homogeneous one. The relevance of these risks to sustainable development of Russia is associated with the neopatrimonial nature of the current model of government with the high role of its informal component. The paper raises the question of measuring the influence of informal relations on the decision-making processes performing by government bodies.

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