Energy as a scarce strategy resource is the physical base for national economic development and social progress. Along with the fossil fuel depletion and environmental problems induced by energy utilization, the early鄄warning of energy security has gradually attracted more attention and thereby emerged as a rising discipline of energy sciences, covering the energy security theory, energy demand forecasting models and energy security early warning index systems. After reviewing the evolution of energy security theory, we summarized the merits and limitations of three kinds of commonly used forecasting models including top鄄down models, bottom鄄up models and hybrid energy models. Top鄄down models such as CGE could give a detailed description about the interaction among different economic sectors. However, these models fail to provide a concrete description for energy technologies. For bottom鄄up model, although a detailed consideration of technologies related to energy production and consumption has been incorporated into modeling, few economies can be described adequately based on such an engineering perspective. In order to integrate the advantage of both modelling approaches, more and more hybrid models have been constructed to overcome the weakness in recent years. Although more dimensions such as environmental, social, and economic aspects have been integrated to the hybrid model, the simulation for water environment and biodiversity is still insufficient. In terms of the modelling technique, the issues like boundary difference, database difference for hybrid model need to be concerned. Additionally, the current energy demand forecasting models can only predict the future energy demand without consideration of energy security. It is therefore necessary to develop the energy security evaluation indicator system. The existing energy security evaluation indicator systems can be 4 2 摇 7 期 摇 摇 摇 赵春富摇 等:能源预测预警理论与方法研究进展 摇