Ecological connectivity is a key concept in landscape and conservation biology. Increasing numbers of international studies are currently showing that coastal ecological connectivity plays an essential role in ecosystem conservation and restoration. In this study, we describe the concepts and principles of coastal ecological connectivity. Many definitions of ecological connectivity have been proposed, but no unified definition has been recognized. Based on an analysis of exiting definitions and principles, we propose that ecological connectivity is an integrated relationship (matrix) of spatial and biological interactions, in which both structural and functional connectivity should be considered. In a review of research progress, we found that the majority of coastal connectivity studies have focused on intertidal ecosystems, such as estuaries, wetlands, sea grass beds, mangroves, and coral reefs. The four major research topics in this area include: (1) exploring the relationships between ecological connectivity and population recruitment based on individual ontogenetic habitat shifts, (2) studying the role of ecological connectivity in response to climate change and population restoration, (3) quantitatively studying the correlation between ecological connectivity and population distribution and the construction of food webs, and (4) developing indicators of ecological connectivity as a tool for promoting ecosystem鄄based management. We also identified certain key issues for each research topic. For example, a major challenge for studies on topic (1) is determining how to quantify the correlations between connectivity and population increases. We then generalized a framework for conducting coastal ecosystem connectivity surveys and introduced a series of methods for certain key steps. These steps included defining the spatial / time scale, examining both structural and functional analyses, and investigating population http: / / www.ecologica.cn distribution. Based on our review, we propose the following five key research areas for domestic studies on coastal ecological connectivity: (1) studies on biological ontogenetic habitat shifts in China忆s coastal areas (we provide a list of the fish species living on China忆s coast that switch habitats during their life cycles) ; (2) studies on juvenile fish distributions that exhibit spatial / temporal changes in estuarine, mangrove, and sea grass habitats, including studies on how ecological connectivity impacts population recruitment; (3) studies on the connectivity between adjacent marine protected areas based on hydrodynamic, nutrient transportation, juvenile dispersal, and adult migration patterns; (4) integrating ecological connectivity into studies on ecosystem integrity and conducting experimental studies on ecosystem resilience to climate change; and (5) integrating ecological connectivity into studies on ecosystem鄄based management, which is a key tool for marine protected area selection and boundary definition, as well as for decision making in the adaptive manag...

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Energy as a scarce strategy resource is the physical base for national economic development and social progress. Along with the fossil fuel depletion and environmental problems induced by energy utilization, the early鄄warning of energy security has gradually attracted more attention and thereby emerged as a rising discipline of energy sciences, covering the energy security theory, energy demand forecasting models and energy security early warning index systems. After reviewing the evolution of energy security theory, we summarized the merits and limitations of three kinds of commonly used forecasting models including top鄄down models, bottom鄄up models and hybrid energy models. Top鄄down models such as CGE could give a detailed description about the interaction among different economic sectors. However, these models fail to provide a concrete description for energy technologies. For bottom鄄up model, although a detailed consideration of technologies related to energy production and consumption has been incorporated into modeling, few economies can be described adequately based on such an engineering perspective. In order to integrate the advantage of both modelling approaches, more and more hybrid models have been constructed to overcome the weakness in recent years. Although more dimensions such as environmental, social, and economic aspects have been integrated to the hybrid model, the simulation for water environment and biodiversity is still insufficient. In terms of the modelling technique, the issues like boundary difference, database difference for hybrid model need to be concerned. Additionally, the current energy demand forecasting models can only predict the future energy demand without consideration of energy security. It is therefore necessary to develop the energy security evaluation indicator system. The existing energy security evaluation indicator systems can be 4 2 摇 7 期 摇 摇 摇 赵春富摇 等:能源预测预警理论与方法研究进展 摇

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