2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

Abstract

Tourism and its "midwife", aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT), with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could have far-reaching impacts-either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as "possible" futures for the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e., the "grim reaper" and the "fallen angel" scenarios, are undesirable. The "green lantern" scenario represents the desired future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting, repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing new opportunities.

What could the next 40 years hold for global tourism?

“…Therefore, while the tourism sector cannot realistically be expected to anticipate and plan for low probability, massively disruptive 'black swan' events, it should be expected to plan for slower evolving trends that will have significant consequences for tourism, including: regional demographic change (ageing, population growth, increased urbanism), climate change and the requisite transition to a global low carbon economy, and nearterm technological change (social media, mobile computing, the Internet of things, robotics in the service sector) (Table 3). While some innovative tourism focused scenario projects have explored some of these potential challenges (CSIRO Futures, 2013;Forum for the Future, 2009;Frost, Laing, & Beeton, 2014;Vorster et al, 2013;Yeoman, 2012), we contend here that tourism has much to gain from the expertise contained in the scenarios developed for other economic sectors.…”

“…Notably, the UN has recently published a fundamentally revised estimate of global population growth until 2100, most of which is going to occur in Africa (Gerland et al, 2014). While the assumptions behind the Yeoman scenarios and how they influence regional tourism development are not explained, these outcomes may provide a note of caution for tourism as a development strategy in some countries and echo the recommendation of Hall et al (2013) and Vorster, Ungerer, and Volschenk (2013) to better understand the conditions that could promote or hinder the purported long-term development of tourism in LDCs.…”

“…Table 4 compares the 10 most prominent challenges facing the tourism sector in the next 20 years, as identified by Vorster et al's (2013) recent Delphi analysis with tourism experts, with the 10 global risks of highest concern over the next 10-year horizon to the World Economic Forum's global panel, indicating considerable differences in perspectives. The limited scope of economic risks (i.e.…”

Conceptualising Strategy-Making Through a Strategic Architecture Perspective

“…First, by looking into the future with all its uncertainties, it is a sense-making exercise to better understand the status quo. Second, it is a tool for long-term strategic direction setting (Vorster, Ungerer, & Volschenk, 2013).…”

Study of the current incentive rules and mechanisms to promote biofuel use in the EU and their possible application to the civil aviation sector

“…Recent studies suggest that if the global economic growth continúes, aviation C0 2 emissions are likely to experience a greater than three-fold increase between 2000 and 2050 (Alonso et al, 2014). Some industries, like long-haul tourism, depending strongly on air transport are especially concerned about the effect of this environmental impact on their future development (Vorster et al, 2012).…”