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Roodenburg, Hans; Janssen, Reijer; Rele, Harry ter

doi:10.1023/a:1003252013357

Cited by 3 publications

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“…This article draws, to a large extent, on a recent study by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. 1 Although less comprehensive, that study bears some resemblance to studies on the economic impact of immigration that have been published for Germany 2 and the United States. 3…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

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Effects of immigration on labour markets and government budgets: the case of the Netherlands

2004

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Employing methods extracted from the literature, in combination with data on the Dutch economy, we assess the impact of immigration on the labour market and the public sector in the Netherlands. Additional labour supply due to immigration will have only a limited positive effect on the total income of natives, though redistribution between native groups is relatively large. The long run fiscal impact of immigrants will only be positive if their labour market performance at least equals that of natives. We conclude that selective labour immigration may contribute to the economic well-being of the host country. However, large-scale immigration of labour is not considered to be effective in alleviating the financial burden of ageing in the Netherlands.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Roodenburg et al 1 discuss the model with two skill levels for the Netherlands in detail. Low-skilled workers are defined as workers with primary or lower secondary education, and they make up about 30% of the Dutch workforce.…”

Section: Redistributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of immigration on labour markets and government budgets: the case of the Netherlands

2004

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Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries

Dalsgaard

Serres

1999

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

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79619 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origineComplete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(99)8 2 ABSTRACT/RESUMÉIn this paper, a structural VAR model is estimated for 11 EU countries in order to assess the effect on the government deficit ratio of four independent economic disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand and monetary shocks. Based on the estimated distribution of these shocks, stochastic simulations are performed to derive estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances that would have to be maintained to avoid breaching the Stability and Growth Pact's 3 per cent of GDP deficit limit over different time horizons and with varying degrees of confidence. In order to capture the movement in the deficit stemming from automatic stabilisation, fiscal policy shocks are turned off during the simulations. The results suggest that, for the majority of countries, if governments were to aim for a cyclically-adjusted budget deficit between 1.0 and 1.5 per cent of GDP, the actual deficit would, with a 90 per cent likelihood, remain within the 3 per cent limit over a three-year horizon, without the need to adjust fiscal policy in a pro-cyclical fashion. This horizon would be extended to between five and seven years if governments opted for a "close-to-balance" budget rule, defined as a cyclically-adjusted deficit between zero and 1 per cent of GDP. The findings also indicate that the medium-term deficit targets --as set out in the individual countries' Stability programmes (for Euro area countries) and Convergence programmes (for non-euro countries) --submitted to the European Council appear to be overall prudent, at least with respect to a three-year horizon. If longer horizons are considered, however, it may be desirable for the four largest EU countries and Austria to tighten their medium-term budget objectives. * * * * * Dans cette étude, les auteurs estiment un modèle VAR structurel pour 11 pays de l'union européenne afin d'évaluer l'effet sur le solde budgétaire du secteur public en proportion du PIB de quatre chocs économiques indépendants, soit des chocs de politique fiscale et monétaire ainsi que des chocs d'offre et de demande réelle du secteur privé. A partir de la distribution estimée de ces chocs, des simulations stochastiques sont utilisées pour dériver des estimations du solde budgétaire corrigé des influences conjoncturelles qui permettraient de minimiser les risques que la limite de 3 pour cent fixée dans le cadre du Pacte de Stabilité et Croissance ne soit franchi sur divers horizons temporels et pour différents seuils de confiance. Les chocs de politique fiscale sont maintenus à zéro au cours des simulations afin de ne prendre en compte que le mouvement du solde budgétaire qui relève des effets de stabilisation automatique. Il ressort de l'analyse que si les gouvernements visaient un déficit corrigé des influences conjoncturelles compris entre 1 et 1,5 pour cent du PIB, le déficit effectif se maintiendrait, avec une probabilité de 90 pour cent, d...

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Safety Margins in EU Budgetary Surveillance: An Assessment

Codogno

Nucci

2007

SSRN Journal

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Cited by 3 publications

References 2 publications

Effects of immigration on labour markets and government budgets: the case of the Netherlands

Effects of immigration on labour markets and government budgets: the case of the Netherlands

Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries

Safety Margins in EU Budgetary Surveillance: An Assessment

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