Abstract. We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of characterizing the observed variability. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High (low) potential vorticity at 300 hPa indicates that the tropopause is low (high), and the identification of these two groups is made to account for the dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the ozone distribution from both observations and a three-dimensional model simulation using winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System for transport. Ozone data sets include ozonesonde observations from northern midlatitude stations (1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)
IntroductionThe focus of this study is to better characterize the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere of northern middle latitudes. This layer is the transition region between the stratosphere and troposphere, and conceptual models of transport in either regime break down. The motivation to better understand tracer distributions in the neighborhood of the tropopause is provided by the potential importance of changes in trace composition to issues of both atmospheric chemistry and climate. In particular, since airplanes emit their effluents in the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere, confidence in our ability to assess current or future impact of air traffic on the environment depends on how well we can characterize this region.•Data Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland. An alternative global-scale dynamical approach to stratosphere-troposphere exchange was reviewed by Holton et al. [1995]. From this perspective, Rossby waves and gravity waves generated in the troposphere propagate and dissipate at higher altitudes, causing a wave-induced westward zonal force. This force causes a mean meridional mass circulation with upward transport in the tropics and downward transport at high latitudes, especially during winter and spring. Evaluating stratosphere-troposphere exchange by exploiting this principle of "downward-sideways control" does not require specific attention to synoptic-scale disturbances and has often proven more 17,793