A Bayesian Network Model for Seismic Risk Analysis

Abstract

Earthquakes are one of the most unpredictable natural disasters. A series of secondary and derived disaster events may occur afterwards and lead to even more consequences. In such situations, a seismic risk analysis that takes into account secondary and derived disaster events is vital in reducing the risks of such disasters. The absence of a holistic seismic risk analysis model—one that takes into account the derived disaster events—may mean that the serious consequences of the disaster chains set off by earthquakes are neglected. This article proposes a comprehensive seismic risk analysis that enables a better understanding of seismic disaster chains and rescue scenarios. The approach is based on a Bayesian network constructed using scenario‐based methods. The final network structure is achieved by learning parameters. To determine the critical secondary disasters and the key emergency‐response measures, probability adaptation and updating using the Bayesian model were performed. The practical application of the model is illustrated using the Wenchuan earthquake and the Jiuzhaigou earthquake in China. The two examples show that the model can be used to predict the potential effects of secondary disasters and the final seismic losses. The results of the model can help decisionmakers gain a comprehensive understanding of seismic risk and implement practical emergency‐rescue measures to reduce risk and losses.

A Bayesian Network Model for Rough Estimations of Casualties by Strong Earthquakes in Emergency Mode

“…Due to its' remarkable results, BNs have been used to deal with the occurrence and development process of emergencies, model and analyze the whole occurrence and development of emergencies. Ma and Zhang respectively introduced a conceptual framework based on Bayesian networks to analyze and verify earthquake disasters and emergency management measures [14][15].…”

Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China

“…Many organizations and regional plans around the world have emphasized the importance of improving natural disaster risk prevention capabilities [3][4][5]. Earthquakes are one of the main causes of geological disasters, and they can cause huge losses to regional populations [6][7][8][9]. A variety of disaster risk prevention measures have been formulated and adopted to reduce future impacts of earthquakes [10].…”

“…Great earthquakes can not only cause a large number of landslides, but they can also aggravate the instability of slopes for a long time after the earthquake [7,11,12,21,22]. For example, there were about 5000 landslides in the Haiti earthquake on 12 January 2010 [21], and in the Maule earthquake there were 1226 landslides over an area of 120,500 km 2 and the rock mass was more fragmented [6]. The asymmetric distribution of inclined fault may lead to differences of damage between hanging wall and footwall [23].…”

“…Mathematical analysis and numerical simulation are the main methods used in this research field [20,46]. Mathematical analysis is mainly based on the establishment of an indicator system, including rainfall, topography, lithology, and vegetation, to evaluate the hazards in potential areas [6,44]. The potential path in the gully and the alluvial fan are the potential hazard areas and their ranges are important parts for debris-flow risk assessment [48].…”

“…The risk assessment of population loss posed by disaster chain is an important way to achieve comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation [6]. In this study, from the perspective of the cascading effect of an earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain in Wenchuan County, the risk assessment method was improved in terms of the identification and assessment of debris flow hazards under earthquake and rainstorm scenarios, and the quantitative risk assessment of the population loss was conducted to provide a scientific basis for regional seismic geological disaster prevention and management.…”