In the context of large-scale multiple testing, hypotheses are often
accompanied with certain prior information. In this paper, we present a
single-index modulated (SIM) multiple testing procedure, which maintains
control of the false discovery rate while incorporating prior information, by
assuming the availability of a bivariate $p$-value, $(p_1,p_2)$, for each
hypothesis, where $p_1$ is a preliminary $p$-value from prior information and
$p_2$ is the primary $p$-value for the ultimate analysis. To find the optimal
rejection region for the bivariate $p$-value, we propose a criteria based on
the ratio of probability density functions of $(p_1,p_2)$ under the true null
and nonnull. This criteria in the bivariate normal setting further motivates us
to project the bivariate $p$-value to a single-index, $p(\theta)$, for a wide
range of directions $\theta$. The true null distribution of $p(\theta)$ is
estimated via parametric and nonparametric approaches, leading to two
procedures for estimating and controlling the false discovery rate. To derive
the optimal projection direction $\theta$, we propose a new approach based on
power comparison, which is further shown to be consistent under some mild
conditions. Simulation evaluations indicate that the SIM multiple testing
procedure improves the detection power significantly while controlling the
false discovery rate. Analysis of a real dataset will be illustrated.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1222 the Annals of
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org