A decade of weather extremes

Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

doi:10.1038/nclimate1452

Cited by 1,890 publications

(1,266 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…In many parts of the world, climate change is leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather events (Beniston and Stephenson, 2004;Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012;IPCC, 2012;Jentsch and Beierkuhnlein, 2008;Mirza, 2003;Planton et al, 2008;Van Aalst, 2006). These extreme events can threaten the provision of ES (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of extreme natural events on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain environment: The importance of trail design in delivering system resilience and ecosystem service co-benefits

Tomczyk

White

Ewertowski

2016

Journal of Environmental Management

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of extreme natural events on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain environment: The importance of trail design in delivering system resilience and ecosystem service co-benefits

Tomczyk

White

Ewertowski

2016

Journal of Environmental Management

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“…Climate change effects are predicted to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, alter precipitation patterns affecting incidence and severity of droughts, and increase temperature (Seneviratne et al 2012;Dai 2011;Min et al 2011;Zwiers et al 2011;Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012;IPCC 2014). Temperature has increased at unprecedented rates in the last 100 years (Houghton et al 2001), and the last three decades have been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850 (IPCC 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Esperón-Rodríguez

Bonifacio-Bautista

Barradas

2015

Ambio

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Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of *9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

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“…This was aggravated by the ongoing political conflict as well as the worst flooding in a decade by the end of the year (Isar 2010). In summer 2010, western Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Kazakhstan experienced a heat wave that lead to historical warm records in several cities and a considerable high number of casualties related to the extremely hot temperatures (Barriopedro et al 2011;Trenberth and Fasullo 2012;Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012). By the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, a series of loods took place in the southern part of Africa, mainly in South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and southern Botswana.…”

Section: Validation Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme anomaly event detection in biosphere using linear regression and a spatiotemporal MRF model

et al. 2018

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Detecting abnormal events within time series is crucial for analyzing and understanding the dynamics of the system in many research areas. In this paper, we propose a methodology to detect these anomalies in multivariate environmental data. Five biosphere variables from a preliminary version of the Earth System Data Cube have been used in this study: Gross Primary Productivity, Latent Energy, Net Ecosystem Exchange, Sensible Heat and Terrestrial Ecosystem Respiration. To tackle the spatiotemporal dependencies of the biosphere variables, the proposed methodology after preprocessing the data is divided into two steps: a feature extraction step applied to each time series in the grid independently, followed by a spatiotemporal event detection step applied to the obtained novelty scores over the entire study area. The first step is based on the assumption that the time series of each variable can be represented by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process, and the anomalies are those time instances that are not well represented by the estimated ARMA model. The Mahalanobis distance of the ARMA models' multivariate residuals is used as a novelty score. In the second step, the obtained novelty scores of the entire study are treated as time series of images. Markov random fields (MRFs) provide an effective and theoretically well-established methodology for integrating spatiotemporal dependency into the classification of image time series. In this study, the classification of the novelty score images into three classes, intense anomaly, possible anomaly, and normal, is performed using unsupervised K-means clustering followed by multi-temporal MRF segmentation applied recursively on the images of each consecutive L ! 1 time steps. The proposed methodology was applied to an area covering Europe and Africa. Experimental results and validation based on known historic events show that the method is able to detect historic events and also provides a useful tool to define sensitive regions.

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A decade of weather extremes

Cited by 1,890 publications

References 68 publications

Effects of extreme natural events on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain environment: The importance of trail design in delivering system resilience and ecosystem service co-benefits

Effects of extreme natural events on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain environment: The importance of trail design in delivering system resilience and ecosystem service co-benefits

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

Extreme anomaly event detection in biosphere using linear regression and a spatiotemporal MRF model

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