A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Timber Market under Global Warming: An Integrated Modeling Approach

Lee, Dug Man; Lyon, Kenneth S.

doi:10.2307/4135326

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…First, there is a literature that uses market simulation models to solve for the dynamic path of equilibrium price and quantity of timber that maximizes the present value of the total surplus from producing and consuming timber products (Lyon and Sedjo 1983). Market models have been extensively used to examine long-run timber supply (Adams et al 1996), the impacts of climate change on timber markets (Sohngen and Mendelsohn 1998;Lee and Lyon 2004;Sohngen and Tian 2016), and the effects of carbon prices on markets (Im et al 2007). Market simulation model results find that climate change will be beneficial to timber markets (Mendelsohn et al 2016).…”

Section: Relationship To Literature On Economics Of Forest Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By basing our model on revealed management choices across space, our approach is a cross-sectional approach to studying climate adaptation (Massetti and Mendelsohn 2018). Previous literature that examines the interaction between climate and forestry is predominantly based on dynamic market simulation models that assume rather than estimate adaptation (Sohngen and Mendelsohn 1998;Lee and Lyon 2004;Sohngen and Tian 2016).…”

Section: Relationship To Literature On Economics Of Forest Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Intersection between Climate Adaptation, Mitigation, and Natural Resources: An Empirical Analysis of Forest Management

Hashida¹,

Lewis²

2019

Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Econom

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Forest landowners can adapt to climate change and carbon pricing by altering the types of forests that are replanted or regenerated. By inducing land-use changes within forestry, climate adaptation and mitigation policy can alter the flow of non-market forest ecosystem services. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the effect of climate change and carbon pricing on adaptation behavior of private forest owners. We develop an empirical framework with application to the U.S. Pacific coast. An estimated discrete-choice econometric model is used as the empirical basis for a simulation of land-use changes to the composition of a landscape's forest stock. Results indicate that climate change induces landowners to adapt away from their current dominant species choice of Douglas-fir to species more suitable for the future climate, notably hardwoods and ponderosa pine. A carbon price policy accelerates adaptation away from current forest types, potentially creating an externality at the local level.

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Section: Relationship To Literature On Economics Of Forest Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Relationship To Literature On Economics Of Forest Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Intersection between Climate Adaptation, Mitigation, and Natural Resources: An Empirical Analysis of Forest Management

Hashida¹,

Lewis²

2019

Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Econom

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“…11 Timber supply fluctuation; global trade fluctuations Sohngen & Mendelsohn, 1998;Irland et al, 2001;Perez-Garcia et al, 2002;Lee & Lyon, 2004;Browne & Hunt, 2007;Kirilenko & Sedjo, 2007;Williamson et al, 2008;Jonsson, 2009 Peng & Apps, 1999;Volney & Fleming, 2000;Dale et al, 2001;Schimel et al, 2001;Perez-Garcia et al, 2002;Barrow et al, 2004;Spittlehouse, 2005;Bernier, 2007;Kirilenko & Sedjo, 2007;McKenney et al, 2007;Aitken et al, 2008;Hogg et al, 2008;Iverson et al, 2008;Lindenmayer & Noss, 2008;Flannigan et al, 2009 Unmodified 5.3.2. 27 Forest ecosystem change; timber supply fluctuation Irland, 1998;Kerry et al, 1999;Hauer et al, 2001;Hardy, 2002;McCready, 2004;Gray, 2005;McKenney et al, 2007; Unmodified 5.3.3. 6 Wood fibre quality Jozsa & Middleton, 1994;Kennedy, 1995;Nyland, 1996;Francis & Hengeveld, 1998;Parker et al, 2000; Uninfluenced 5.3.5.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Criteria and Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management in a Changing Climate: An Evaluation of Canada’s National Framework

Steenberg

Duinker²,

Damme³

et al. 2012

JSD

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Sustainability is now woven throughout forest management and policy. Criteria and indicators (C&I) provide a means of defining the concepts of sustainability in the context of forest management and establishing goals to gauge progress. There have been no major research initiatives to determine the implications of climate change for C&I. We evaluated the 46 indicators of the 2003 Canadian Council of Forest Ministers framework. Indicators were evaluated for their relationships with climate, relationships with other indicators, robustness and utility under climate change, and future prospects, including abandonment, improvement, or continued use. An evaluation framework was developed to analyze indicator linkages, direct and indirect climate-change influence, and potential modifications. 12 indicators were considered unaffected by climate change. The remaining 34 indicators were considered to be influenced by climate change. No modification seemed warranted for 23 of these indicators, while modifications for the remaining 11 indicators were recommended. Six new indicators were identified for monitoring forests sustainably under climate change. The difference between action and state indicators had implications for the influence of climate change on indicator effectiveness. State indicators were more prone to declines in their tracking ability, while action indicators were often unaffected, or even improved under climate change, as measured by several key traits of indicator effectiveness. The most prevalent theme in the evaluations was a decline in indicator predictability. We suggest moving from predominantly retrospective analysis to a balance of retrospective and prospective analysis, given that monitoring is inherently backward-looking and the threats and uncertainties of climate change are impending.

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“…Previous studies that integrate ecological and economic models to address impacts of climate change in forestry (van Vuuren et al 2006;Lee andLyon 2004, Sohngen andMendelsohn 2003;Perez-Garcia et al 2002, Brinkley 1988 either take a global perspective without focusing much on adaptation or are constrained to a regional analysis with insufficient links to global markets. This study combines adaptation within regions with repercussions from global impacts on forests in the market for forest products.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

Aaheim

Gopalakrishnan

Chaturvedi

et al. 2010

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

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A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Timber Market under Global Warming: An Integrated Modeling Approach

Cited by 14 publications

References 24 publications

The Intersection between Climate Adaptation, Mitigation, and Natural Resources: An Empirical Analysis of Forest Management

The Intersection between Climate Adaptation, Mitigation, and Natural Resources: An Empirical Analysis of Forest Management

Criteria and Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management in a Changing Climate: An Evaluation of Canada’s National Framework

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

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