A fractional-order SEIHDR model for COVID-19 with inter-city networked coupling effects

Lu, Zhenzhen; Yu, Yongguang; Chen, YangQuan; Ren, Guojian; Xu, Conghui; Wang, Shuhui; Yin, Zhe

doi:10.1007/s11071-020-05848-4

Cited by 53 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…In another study, the authors studied the dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy [3]. A fractional model for intercity network is considered in [4]. A mathematical model of COVID-19 and its simulations are considered in [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation

et al. 2020

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In the present paper, we formulate a new mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantine and isolation. Initially, we provide a brief discussion on the model formulation and provide relevant mathematical results. Then, we consider the fractal-fractional derivative in Atangana-Baleanu sense, and we also generalize the model. The generalized model is used to obtain its stability results. We show that the model is locally asymptotically stable if R 0 < 1. Further, we consider the real cases reported in China since January 11 till April 9, 2020. The reported cases have been used for obtaining the real parameters and the basic reproduction number for the given period, R 0 ≈ 6.6361. The data of reported cases versus model for classical and fractal-factional order are presented. We show that the fractal-fractional order model provides the best fitting to the reported cases. The fractional mathematical model is solved by a novel numerical technique based on Newton approach, which is useful and reliable. A brief discussion on the graphical results using the novel numerical procedures are shown. Some key parameters that show significance in the disease elimination from the society are explored.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation

et al. 2020

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“…A further challenge is the modeling of the spatial spread of the epidemic diseases in geographical regions. Several works, therefore, coupled the classical SIR model with intercity networks, as in Reference [10,11]. To this aim, the classical epidemiological models of SIR type have been recast in the variational setting of analytical mechanics in Reference [12] with continuum partial differential equation models with diffusion terms describing the spatial variation in epidemics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Least-Squares Finite Element Method for a Meso-Scale Model of the Spread of COVID-19

Bertrand

Pirch

2021

Computation

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This paper investigates numerical properties of a flux-based finite element method for the discretization of a SEIQRD (susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered-deceased) model for the spread of COVID-19. The model is largely based on the SEIRD (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased) models developed in recent works, with additional extension by a quarantined compartment of the living population and the resulting first-order system of coupled PDEs is solved by a Least-Squares meso-scale method. We incorporate several data on political measures for the containment of the spread gathered during the course of the year 2020 and develop an indicator that influences the predictions calculated by the method. The numerical experiments conducted show a promising accuracy of predictions of the space-time behavior of the virus compared to the real disease spreading data.

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“…In COVID-19 EP, horizontal relationships are those between municipal governments at the same level. Horizontal coordination between UGs is important to relieve pressure and maintain the stability of the vertical structure [51]. Cross-sectional relationships are mainly influenced by the sudden and stubborn nature of COVID-19, the self-interest and dependence of lower governments, and the great pressure of higher governments.…”

Section: Horizontal Relationshipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevention schemes for future pandemic cases: mathematical model and experience of interurban multi-agent COVID-19 epidemic prevention

Yin

Zhang

2021

Nonlinear Dyn

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To enhance the effectiveness of epidemic prevention (EP) in urban sustainability transformation, joint prevention and control mechanism should be established to prevent and control the COVID-19 epidemic. The interurban multi-agent EP strategy, as a key component of this mechanism, includes the spontaneous EP model, the superior leading EP model, and the collaborative EP model. In this study, firstly, the theoretical mechanism of the interurban multiagent EP strategy was analyzed. Then, we proposed a three-party differential game model including factors such as the risk coefficient for the virus infection and EP experience teaching. Finally, prevention strategies, prevention efficiency, and prevention losses were compared under the three models based on theoretical analysis and numerical analysis. The results of this study are as follows. COVID-19 EP should be guided by a model of central government (CG) leadership, interurban collaboration, and social participation. The CG and urban governments (UGs) should comprehensively carry out COVID-19 EP from various aspects, including EP experience teaching, mass EP comfort, the utilization rate of EP funds, and the ability to implement strategies. During the course of the COVID-19 EP, when the CG and UGs transition from spontaneous EP model to a higher-level EP model, the UG's EP efforts will be enhanced. Under the collaborative EP model, the CG and UGs undergo the highest levels of EP effort. Compared with spontaneous EP model, the superior leading EP model can promote a Pareto improvement for all parties. From the perspective of total loss, the collaborative EP model is superior to the other two EP models. This study not only provides practical guidance for coordinating interurban relationships and enabling multiagents to fully form joint forces, but also provides theoretical support for the establishment of an interurban joint EP mechanism under unified leadership.Keywords COVID-19 Á Joint prevention and control Á Urban governance Á Multi-agent collaboration Á Urban sustainability transformation Á Differential game

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A fractional-order SEIHDR model for COVID-19 with inter-city networked coupling effects

Cited by 53 publications

References 33 publications

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation

Least-Squares Finite Element Method for a Meso-Scale Model of the Spread of COVID-19

Prevention schemes for future pandemic cases: mathematical model and experience of interurban multi-agent COVID-19 epidemic prevention

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