A hierarchical simulation-through-optimization approach to forest disturbance modelling

Campbell, Kirstin Anne; Dewhurst, Stephen

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.10.020

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…The development of decision trees (Cohan et al 1983), mathematical programming models (e.g., Reed and Errico 1986, Gassmann 1989, Lilieholm et al 1991, Boychuk and Martell 1996, Martins et al 2005, Constantino et al 2008, Acuna et al 2010, simulation (Van Wagner 1983, Peter andNelsson 2005), combination of Monte Carlo simulation and mathematical programming (Armstrong 2004), Markov chains (Zhou andBuongiorno 2006, Campbell andDewhurst 2007), or heuristics (e.g., Hoganson and Rose 1987, Falcão and Borges 2002, Caro et al 2003, Gonzáélez et al 2005 have proved to provide a framework that facilitates the integration of considerations about wildfire risk in forested landscape management planning models. Van Wagner (1983) pioneered research of modeling approaches to assess the impact of the proportion of burned area on timber supply.…”

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confidence: 99%

Addressing Wildfire Risk in a Landscape-Level Scheduling Model: An Application in Portugal

Ferreira¹,

Constantino²,

Borges³

et al. 2015

Forest Science

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The paper presents and discusses research aiming at the development of a forested landscape management scheduling model that may address the risk of wildfires. A general indicator is built from wildfire occurrence and damage probabilities to assess stand-level resistance to wildfires. This indicator is developed to further address the specificity of each stand configuration (e.g., shape and size) and spatial context (neighboring stands characteristics). The usefulness of the development of such an indicator is tested within a mixed integer programming (MIP) approach to find the location and timing of management options (e.g., fuel treatment, thinning, clearcut) that may maximize the forested landscape expected net revenues. The Leiria National Forest, a Portuguese forest in central Portugal, was used as a case study. Results suggest that the proposed approach may help integrate wildfire risk in forested landscape management planning and assess its impact on the optimal plan. Results further show that prescriptions that include fuel treatments are often chosen over others that do not include them, thus highlighting the importance of wildfire management efforts. Finally, they provide interesting insights about the role of thinnings and fuel treatment in mitigating wildfire risk.

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confidence: 99%

Addressing Wildfire Risk in a Landscape-Level Scheduling Model: An Application in Portugal

Ferreira¹,

Constantino²,

Borges³

et al. 2015

Forest Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The first group incorporates fire risk in a spatially inexplicit manner, either assuming a deterministic amount of losses (Reed and Errico, 1986;Martell, 1994) or using stochastic simulations of fire occurrence (Boychuk and Martel, 1996;Gassmann, 1989;Armstrong, 2004;Haynes and Quigley, 2001;González et al, 2005a). The second, more recent group incorporates fire spread models to assess the impacts of fires explicitly during the planning period (Shifley et al, 2000;Peter and Nelson, 2005;Provencher et al, 2007;Campbell and Dewhurst, 2007). The complexity of the current fire spread models makes it difficult to compare many different candidate plans in terms of fire damage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%