A mathematical model of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) containing asymptomatic and symptomatic classes

Ahmed, Idris; Modu, Goni Umar; Yusuf, Abdullahi; Kumam, Poom; Yusuf, Ibrahim

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103776

Cited by 130 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 47 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The principal objective of the present study is to better understand the spread of the VOC of SARS-CoV-2, and how effective different interventions may be. To achieve that objective, we developed an SV 2 (AIR) 3 model that represents factors key to the spread of COVID-19: (i) asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, 20,21 (ii) simultaneous spread of multiple VOC, (iii) two-dose vaccinations with variable dosing intervals, 22 (iv) two vaccines with different e cacy, and (v) the effects of NPI. 23 Main ndings of this study include:…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in Ontario, Canada: A Case Study

Sadria

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A year after the initial wild-type Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains began their devastation of the world, they were supplanted by new variants of concern (VOC). In Ontario, Canada, the wild type was overtaken first by the Alpha/B1.1.17 variant, and then by the Delta/B.1.617 variant. The principal objective of the present study is to develop and apply a much expanded Susceptible-Infection-Recovered-type model to better understand the spread of multiple VOC, and assess the effectiveness of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). The model represents competition among VOC, and reveals their mutual inhibitory effects. By separately tracking asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, model simulations identify a significant role of vaccine breakthrough in the spread of Delta. Furthermore, the severity of a Delta outbreak depends not only on the NPI and vaccination rate but also on the vaccine types. Alarmingly, despite Ontario’s existing NPI and relatively successful vaccine rollout, a future, more dangerous VOC could potentially infect a significant fraction of the province’s population and overwhelm the health care system. To stop that VOC, the province may need the simultaneous and rapid deployment of a third booster vaccine and stringent NPI.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in Ontario, Canada: A Case Study

Sadria

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In [10] , the authors analyzed some environmental factors such as atmospheric humidity, temperature, geographic location of the countries, humidity, etc., that impact the worldwide spread of the COVID-19. Currently, there are many mathematical models used to explain disease processes of COVID-19, for more details, refer the reader to [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of a stochastic delay differential model for COVID-19 infection with asymptomatic infected and interacting people: Case study in the UAE

Rihan

Alsakaji

2021

Results in Physics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Public health science is increasingly focusing on understanding how COVID-19 spreads among humans. For the dynamics of COVID-19, we propose a stochastic epidemic model, with time-delays, Susceptible-Infected-Asymptomatic-Quarantined-Recovered (SIAQR). One global positive solution exists with probability one in the model. As a threshold condition of persistence and existence of an ergodic stationary distribution, we deduce a generalized stochastic threshold . To estimate the percentages of people who must be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, least-squares approaches were used to estimate from real observations in the UAE. Our results suggest that when , a proportion of the population needs to be immunized/vaccinated during the pandemic wave. Numerical simulations show that the proposed stochastic delay differential model is consistent with the physical sensitivity and fluctuation of the real observations.

show abstract

“…Mathematical and computational modeling of infectious diseases provides deeper mechanistic insights into transmission pathways, preventive approaches, and prediction of dissemination. Many researchers have used the mathematical model to describe and predict the behavior of infectious diseases, (see [45] , [25] , [6] , [36] and references therein). One of the fastest-growing fields of mathematics is fractional calculus, which generalizes classical calculus and handles the integrals and derivatives of non-integer order.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator

Ahmed

Goufo

Yusuf

et al. 2021

Alexandria Engineering Journal

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The whole world is still shaken by the new corona virus and many countries are starting opting for the lockdown again after the first wave that already killed thousands of people. New observations also show that the virus spreads quickly during the cold period closer to winter season. On the other side, the number of new infections decreases considerably during hot period closer to summer time. The geographic structure of our planet is such that when some countries (in a hemisphere) are in their winter season, others in the other hemisphere are in their summer season. However, we have observed in the world some countries undertaking national lockdown during their summer time, which result in their economy to be hugely hit. Other factors, beside the lockdown, have also impacted negatively the socio-economic situation in affected countries. These include, among others, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) susceptible to combine to the new corona virus. The new corona virus is indeed recent and many of its effect and impact on the society are still unknown and are still to be uncovered. Hence we use here the of Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative to mathematically express and analyses a model of HIV disease combined with COVID-19 to assess the pandemic situation in many countries affected, such as South Africa, United Kingdom (UK), China, Spain, United States of America (USA), and Italy. A way to achieve that is to perform stability and bifurcation analysis. It is also possible to investigate in which conditions the combined model contains a forward and a backward bifurcation. Moreover, utilizing the techniques of Schaefer and Banach fixed point theorems, existence and uniqueness of solutions of the generalized fractional model were presented. Also, the Atangana-Baleanu fractional (generalized) HIV-COVID-19 con-infection model is solved numerically via well-known and effective numerical scheme and a predicted prevalence for the COVID-19 is provided. The global trend shown by the numerical simulation proves that the disease will stabilize at a later stage when adequate measures are taken.

show abstract

A mathematical model of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) containing asymptomatic and symptomatic classes

Cited by 130 publications

References 47 publications

Understanding the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in Ontario, Canada: A Case Study

Understanding the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in Ontario, Canada: A Case Study

Dynamics of a stochastic delay differential model for COVID-19 infection with asymptomatic infected and interacting people: Case study in the UAE

An epidemic prediction from analysis of a combined HIV-COVID-19 co-infection model via ABC-fractional operator

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About