A method for estimating the direct and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crops: Part I—Modification of the EPIC model for climate change analysis

Stöckle, Claudio O.; Williams, J. R.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Jones, Charles

doi:10.1016/0308-521x(92)90067-x

Cited by 231 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…In this study, potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the PriestleyTaylor equation (Priestley and Taylor 1972). The effect of CO 2 concentration on radiation use efficiency is expressed using an exponential function adapted from Stockle et al (1992), and is included in the STICS model (Bergez et al 2014). The seed yield formation is calculated by applying a harvest index increasing linearly with days after flowering (Spaeth and Sinclair 1985) and shoot biomass.…”

Section: Crop Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling soybean yield responses to seeding date under projected climate change scenarios

et al. 2017

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Section: Crop Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling soybean yield responses to seeding date under projected climate change scenarios

et al. 2017

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“…The effect of CO2 concentration change on plant stomatal conductance is computed by SWAT model using the equation developed by Easterling et al [23], in which increased CO2 concentrations lead to decreased leaf conductance (doubled CO2 concentration leads to general decrease of stomatal conductance by 40%) which in turn results in a decrease in the potential evapotranspiration calculation. The change in radiation use efficiency of plants is simulated as a function of CO2 concentration using the method developed by Stockle et al [24]. Surface flow is estimated using a modification of the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCC CN) method; the lateral flow is calculated based on the kinematic storage model, and the peak runoff rate is estimated by a modified rational method (the peak runoff rate is a function of the fraction of daily rainfall falling in the time of concentration for the sub-basin, the daily surface runoff volume, the sub-basin area and the time of concentration for the sub-basin).…”

Section: The Swat Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Arias

Rodríguez‐Blanco

Nunes

et al. 2014

Water

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Assessment of the diverse responses of water resources to climate change and high concentrations of CO2 is crucial for the appropriate management of natural ecosystems. Despite numerous studies on the impact of climate change on different regions, it is still necessary to evaluate the impact of these changes at the local scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the potential impact of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration on water resources in a rural catchment in NW Spain for the periods 2031-2060 and 2069-2098, using 1981-2010 as a reference period. For the simulations we used compiled regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES project for future climate input data and two CO2 concentration scenarios (550 and 660 ppm). The results showed that changes in the concentration of CO2 and climate had a significant effect on water resources. Overall, the results suggest a decrease in streamflow of 16% for the period 2031-2060 (intermediate future) and 35% by the end of the 21st century as a consequence of decreasing rainfall (2031-2060: −6%; 2069-2098: −15%) and increasing temperature

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“…Parameters for the simulation of wheat (Pannkuk et al, 1998), potatoes (Peralta and Stöckle, 2002), and apples (Scott et al, 2004) for the region were taken from previous studies and were further refined using available information about crop phenology and morphological, physiological, and biophysical characteristics. The effect of CO 2 on biomass accumulation and crop transpiration was calculated as described by Stöckle et al (1992). Simulated crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops) and nutrient supply.…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

et al. 2010

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A n assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen to evaluate impacts for the periods 2010-2039, 2030-2059 and 2070-2099, identified as 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively. All climate projections reflect a warming future climate, but the individual GCMs vary with respect to precipitation changes -some models reflect wetter conditions and some drier. The assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state at selected representative locations: irrigated apples at Sunnyside; irrigated potatoes at Othello; dryland wheat at Pullman (high precipitation), Saint John (intermediate precipitation), and Lind and Odessa (low precipitation). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences, including simulations with and without concurrent elevation of atmospheric CO 2 concentration as given by the IPCC A1B CO 2 emission projection. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops) and nutrient supply and possible negative impacts from pests and diseases were not accounted for. Simulation results project that the impact of climate change on selected but economically significant crops in eastern Washington will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, the projected CO 2 elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation of climate change effects, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. Yields of winter wheat, without CO 2 effect, are projected to increase 2% to 8% for the 2020 scenario, tending to decline with further warming in high precipitation locations, but continue increasing to reach a 12% gain by the 2080s in low precipitation locations. With CO 2 elevation, winter wheat yields are projected to increase by 15% for the 2020 scenario, with larger increases later in the century. Spring wheat yields are projected not to change for the 2020 scenario, and decline 10% to 15% (2040), and 20% to 26% (2080) without CO 2 effect. However, earlier planting combined with CO 2 elevation is projected to increase yields by 16% for the 2020 scenario. 191Yields of irrigated potatoes are projected to decline 9%, 15%, and 22% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively, but these losses are significantly smaller (2 to 3%) with CO 2 elevation. Varieties with a longer duration of green leaf area, combined with elevated CO 2 , could potentially result in yield gains of 15%. However, reductions of tuber quality are a concern under warmer conditions. Apple yields are projected to decline 1%, 3%, and 4% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively, but with projected yields increasing 6% (2020), 9% (2040), and...

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A method for estimating the direct and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crops: Part I—Modification of the EPIC model for climate change analysis

Cited by 231 publications

References 18 publications

Modelling soybean yield responses to seeding date under projected climate change scenarios

Modelling soybean yield responses to seeding date under projected climate change scenarios

Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

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