A method of probabilistic analysis for steel pipeline with correlated corrosion defects

Li, Shuxin; Zeng, Hai-Long; Yu, Shurong; Zhai, Xiao Liang; Chen, Shuping; Liang, Rui; Yu, Liang

doi:10.1016/j.corsci.2009.08.033

Cited by 30 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Table 2 presents the pipe geometry and material as well as the defect parameters for three grades of pipes. The values for corrosion growth rates (d r and l r ) are based on the previous study [24,37] with minor modifications. Notably, the real corrosion rate depends on various factors and is highly case-specific.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous reliability studies [7,18,[21][22][23][24][25][26] have incorporated the topic of pipe safety with the derivation of the reliability index (probability of failure), but the partial safety factor estimation for defective pipelines has not been paid much attention [27]. The DNV recommended practice [2] specifies safety factors to accomplish yearly reliability levels that are attuned to capture uncertainties associated with pipe design variables.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty in the Estimation of Partial Safety Factors for Different Steel-Grade Corroded Pipelines

Bhardwaj

Teixeira

Soares

2023

JMSE

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This paper assesses the uncertainty of the partial safety factors for the design of corroded pipelines against burst failure due to the variability associated with the strength model selection. First, 10 calibrated burst pressure prediction models for corroded pipelines are adopted and duly categorised under low-, medium- and high-grade steel classes. The probabilistic characteristics of the pipe burst strength are studied using Monte Carlo simulation for the selected models. Model uncertainty factors are used to correct the burst pressure predictions by the design equations. Model strength factors are derived for models in each category that will provide coherent reliability. The first-order reliability method is employed to estimate the partial safety factors and their uncertainty as a function of operational time. Finally, the influence of the corrosion growth model on the evaluation of partial safety factors is assessed. The results obtained in this study can provide vital guidance regarding the design and maintenance of different steel-grade pipelines.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in the Estimation of Partial Safety Factors for Different Steel-Grade Corroded Pipelines

Bhardwaj

Teixeira

Soares

2023

JMSE

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“…The Spearman correlation coefficient (Li et al , 2009; Qian et al , 2011) and max information coefficient (MIC) (Reshef et al , 2011; Kinney and Atwal, 2014) are picked to explore the correlation of each element and PFR. The algorithm of the Spearman correlation coefficient is as follows: where x is the element content and y is the PFR.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An electrochemical method based on OCP fluctuations for anti-corrosion alloy composition optimization

Chen

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2018

ACMM

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Purpose An electrochemical method based on the open circuit potential (OCP) fluctuations was put forward. It can be used to optimize the alloy compositions for improving the corrosion resistance of rust layer. Design/methodology/approach The potential trends and potential fluctuations of carbon steels in seawater were separated by Hodrick–Prescott filter. The Spearman correlation coefficient and max information coefficient were used to explore the correlation of alloy compositions and potential fluctuations. Findings After long-term immersion, potential fluctuation resistance (PFR) can be used to characterize the corrosion resistance of metals and its rust layers. In the 1,500 to 2,500 h exposure period, Fe, C and S compositions have strong negative correlations, whereas PFR and P composition have weak negative correlations. Mn, Cu and Ti alloy compositions help the rust layer of carbon steels have higher PFRs. These elements that exhibit higher PFRs in this period have been confirmed to have the effect on improving the corrosion resistance of rust layer. Originality/value A new computing method for alloy composition optimization of carbon steels based on the OCP fluctuations was put forward. This method combines electrochemical monitoring with the long-term actual seawater environmental tests of various carbon steels.

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“…The large number of associated publications in the existing literature reveal the paper subject importance; some studies of reliability analysis and failure probability are found in the articles by Li et al (2009aLi et al ( , 2009b, Ahammed (1998), Pandey (1998), Caleyo et al (2002), Lee et al (2006), Santosh et al (2006), Zhou (2011), Teixeira et al (2008), Hasan et al (2012) and Ahammed and Melchers (1996); mainly, the analytical approach was applied. In the literature, a more presented study of the impact of correlation system reliability and constituent failures events was elaborated by Zhou et al (2012), Zhang (2014), Qijan et al (2013), Zhang and Zhou (2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A finite element model for estimating time-dependent reliability of a corroded pipeline elbow

Nahal

Khelif

2020

IJSI

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PurposeThe aim of this paper is to investigate the failure probability in an irregular area in pipeline (elbow) over its lifetime. The reliability analysis is performed by using of an enhanced first-order reliability method / second-order reliability method (FORM/SORM) and Monte Carlo simulation methods: a numerical model of a corroded pipeline elbow was developed by using finite element method; also, an empirical mechanical behavior model has been proposed. A numerical case with high, moderate and low corrosion rates was conducted to calculate the deferent reliability indexes. The found results can be used in an application case for managing an irregular area in pipeline lifetime. Hence, it is necessary to ensure a rigorous inspection for this part of a pipeline to avoid human and environmental disasters.Design/methodology/approachThe present paper deals a methodology for estimating time-dependent reliability of a corroded pipeline elbow. Firstly, a numerical model of corroded elbow is proposed by using the finite element method. A mechanical behavior under the corrosion defect in time is studied, and an empirical model was also developed.FindingsThe result of this paper can be summarized as: a mechanical characterization of the material was carried out experimentally. A numerical model of a corroded pipeline elbow was developed by using the finite element method. An empirical mechanical behavior model has been developed. The reliability of a corroding pipe elbow can be significantly affected by corrosion and residual stress. A proportional relationship has been found between probability of failure and corrosion rate. The yield stress and pressure service have an important sensitivity factor.Originality/valueAiming to help Algerian gas and oil companies' decision makers, the present paper illustrates a methodology for estimating time-dependent reliability of a corroded pipeline elbow over its lifetime using numerical models by applying the finite element method. Firstly, a numerical model of a corroded pipe elbow was developed and coupled with an empirical mechanical behavior model, which is also proposed. A probabilistic is then developed to provide realistic corrosion parameters and time modeling, leading to the real impact on the lifetime of an elbow zone in pipeline. The reliability indexes and probability of failure for various corrosion rates with and without issued residual stress are computed using Monte Carlo simulation and FORM.

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A method of probabilistic analysis for steel pipeline with correlated corrosion defects

Cited by 30 publications

References 20 publications

Uncertainty in the Estimation of Partial Safety Factors for Different Steel-Grade Corroded Pipelines

Uncertainty in the Estimation of Partial Safety Factors for Different Steel-Grade Corroded Pipelines

An electrochemical method based on OCP fluctuations for anti-corrosion alloy composition optimization

A finite element model for estimating time-dependent reliability of a corroded pipeline elbow

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