A methodology for project portfolio selection under criteria prioritisation, uncertainty and projects interdependency – combination of fuzzy QFD and DEA

Abstract

Resources of an organisation (people, time, money, equipment, etc) are never endless. As such, a constant and continuous challenge for decision makers is to decide which projects should be given priority in terms of receiving critical resources in a way that the organisation's productivity and profitability is best guarantied. Previous literature has already developed a plenitude of project portfolio selection methodologies ranging from simple scoring to complex mathematical models. However, most of them too often fail to propose one integrated and seamless method that can simultaneously take into account three important elements: 1) prioritisation of selection criteria over each other, 2) uncertainty in decision-making, and 3) projects interdependencies. This paper aspires to fill this gap by proposing an integrated method that can simultaneously address all these three aspects. The proposed method combines Quality Function Development (QFD), fuzzy logic, and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to accounts for prioritisation, uncertainty and interdependency. We then apply this method in a numerical example from a real word case to illustrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed methodology.

Selecting a portfolio of projects considering both optimization and balance of sub-portfolios

“…(Ghapanchi, et al, 2012) (Pérez, et al, 2018) DEA + QFD QFD Method: all customer requirements and needs are identified and effectively transmitted to different parts of the organization. DEA: determines the efficient frontier (Jafarzadeh, et al, 2018) MCDM+ IP + DEA MCDM: Ranking the strategies IP: selecting projects based on the strategy weights and alignments. DEA: Balancing the portfolio (Ghorbaniane, et al, 2015) DEMATEL + DEA DEMATEL: Cause and effect analysis DEA: Selecting an efficient project portfolio (Alinezhad & Simiari , 2013) DEA + BSC DEA: Choosing the best strategies BSC: Extracting operational plans to execute the strategies.…”

Perspectives on the Capabilities for the Selection of Strategic Projects

“…A game-based model to analyze project payoff or management commitment is given in [90]. The decision-makers can use organization based qualitative criteria; for example, top management support in developing the decision options for the final selection of the project portfolio [68]. Some authors also recommend the use of project database and group decision-making ( [29,96]).…”

Literature Review – Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods in Information Technology (IT) Investment

“…[36] TOPSIS using four kinds of criteria include qualitative, quantitative, negative and positive criteria [37] first developing criteria for network structure according to the ANP method, fuzzy methods are used to evaluate interdependent interests between criteria. [38] Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for identification the most efficient IS project with emprecise data [39] Extend the TOPSIS with grey theory for project selection [40] Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), to choose optimal information system [41] illustrates an application of analytic network process (ANP) [42] Fuzzy Quality Function Development (FQD) and DEA for project portfolio selection methodologies [43] integrated Information Technology planning methodology combining Fuzzy Quality Function Deployment, Fuzzy Axiomatic Design and Fuzzy Rule Based Systems…”