A methodology to assess drought management as applied to six European case studies

Urquijo, Julia; Pereira, David; Dias, Susana; Stefano, Lucía De

doi:10.1080/07900627.2016.1174106

Cited by 13 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Drought vulnerability formalizes the relationship between drought hazard and its impact on the exposed assets (Blauhut, Gudnumdsson & Stahl, 2015;Urquijo, De Stefano, González-tánago, Blauhut, & Stahl, 2014). Vulnerability can be thought of as the combination of a system's sensitivity to risk, and its capacity to cope with the resulting harmful conditions (Birkmann et al, 2013;Fernandez, Bucaram, & Renteria, 2015;UNISDR, 2009).…”

Section: Drought Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Multiple factors complicate the prediction of bounded-rational adaptive behavior; such as the perceived adaptation efficiency, the costs of undertaking an adaptive strategy, the (perceived) capacity to enact it (financial or knowledge constraints, technical skills), and risk perception (Bubeck, Botzen, & Aerts, 2012;Grothmann & Patt, 2005;Loucks, 2015). In the context of drought, risk perception relates to how people and institutions perceive both the severity and likelihood of a drought event occurring (Asayehegn, Temple, Sanchez, & Iglesias, 2017;de Korte, 2017;Silvestri, Bryan, Ringler, Herrero, & Okoba, 2012;Urquijo, Pereira, Dias, & De Stefano, 2017); it is this flawed perception of reality that leads to the so-called reservoir effect (Di Baldassarre et al, 2018). Risk perception can be influenced by peoples' memory of past experiences, risk information transferred through social networks, media, or politics, as well as a person's trust in existing forecasting and early warning systems and individual risk-adversity (Loucks, 2015).…”

Section: Accounting For Individual Bounded-rational Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

et al. 2019

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Droughts are a persistent and costly hazard impacting human and environmental systems. As climate variability continues to increase and socioeconomic development influences the distribution of wealth and people, drought risk is expected to increase in many parts of the world. The unique characteristics of droughtsnamely their slow onset, large spatiotemporal extent, human-influenced propagation, delayed impacts and teleconnection potential-make it difficult to correctly assess drought impact and calculate risk. Further complicating this calculation is the capacity for humans to make adaptive decisions before, during, and after a drought event, which in turn alters expected impacts. In this sense, droughts are equally a social and hydroclimatic issue. Risk perception is one of the main factors driving adaptation decisions, yet most models neglect how humans view and respond to risk, and in particular how experiences influence decisions through time. In this overview, we describe a framework that extends the traditional risk modeling approach to include the two-way feedback between the transient adaptation decisions and drought exposure, vulnerability and hazard. We discuss how a sociohydrologic, agent-based modeling setup, focused on individual and collective actions, can simulate the adaptive behaviors of different stakeholders to examine how emergent actions might influence projected drought risk. We suggest such an approach can provide a test-bed for understanding adaptive behaviors in an increasingly drought-prone world and could allow for better prioritization of drought adaptation strategies; refined understanding of future scenarios; and a vehicle to drive planning and resilience building. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Engineering Water > Planning Water Engineering Water > Methods K E Y W O R D S adaptation, agent-based modeling, behavior, drought, risk, sociohydrology

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Section: Drought Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accounting For Individual Bounded-rational Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

et al. 2019

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“…In this study, the impact of drought management strategies on hydrological droughts was investigated using a socio-hydrological model for a range of hydrogeological conditions. Comparing different drought management strategies in a quantitative manner, as presented here, complements qualitative comparisons of previous studies (White et al, 2001;Wilhite et al, 2014;Urquijo et al, 2017). Some of the tested strategies have been assessed separately, as studies focused on either water demand (Low et al, 2015;Maggioni, 2015;Gonzales and Ajami, 2017;Hayden and Tsvetanov, 2019), adaptive water management (Thomas, 2019;White et al, 2019), or conjunctive use combined with managed aquifer recharge to increase drought resilience (Scanlon et al, 2016;Alam et al, 2020).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 79%

Demonstrating the impact of integrated drought policies on hydrological droughts

Wendt¹,

Bloomfield²,

Loon³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Managing water-human systems in times of water shortage and droughts is key to avoid overexploitation of water resources, particularly for groundwater, which is a crucial water resource during droughts sustaining both environmental and anthropogenic water demand. Drought management is often guided by drought policies to avoid crisis management and to actively introduce management strategies during droughts. However, the impact of drought management strategies on hydrological droughts is rarely assessed. In this study, we present a newly developed socio-hydrological model, simulating feedbacks between water availability and managed water use over three decades. Thereby, we aim to assess the impact of drought policies on both surface water and groundwater droughts. We tested this model in an idealised catchment based on climate data, water resource management practices, and drought policies in England. The model includes surface water storage (reservoir), groundwater storage for a range of hydrogeological conditions and optional imported surface water or groundwater. These modelled water sources can all be used to satisfy anthropogenic and environmental water demand. We tested four aspects of drought management strategies: 1) increased water supply, 2) restricted water demand, 3) conjunctive water use, and 4) maintained environmental flow requirements by restricting groundwater abstractions. These four strategies were evaluated in separate and combined scenarios. Results show mitigated droughts for both streamflow and groundwater droughts in scenarios applying conjunctive use, particularly in low groundwater storage systems. In high groundwater storage systems, maintaining environmental flows reduces hydrological droughts most. Scenarios increasing or restricting water demand have an opposing effect on droughts, although these scenarios are in balance when combined at the same time. Most combined scenarios reduce the severity and occurrence of hydrological droughts given an incremental dependency on imported water that satisfies up to a third of the total anthropogenic water demand. The necessity for importing water shows the considerable pressure on water resources and the delicate balance of water-human systems during droughts that calls for short-term and long-term sustainability targets within drought policies.

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“…The concept of vulnerability and its practice-oriented presence in international literature has been expanding rapidly (Turner 2016;Ford et al 2018;Li et al 2019). Drought-related vulnerability assessments are at the forefront of current studies (Edalat and Stephen 2019;Kreibich et al 2019;Sutanto et al 2020) since a considerable amount of arable land is facing numerous challenges in terms of changing climatic patterns from all over the world (Zarafshani et al 2012;Gan et al 2016;Urquijo et al 2017;Musolino et al 2018;Rajesh et al 2018;Ausseil et al 2019). Methodologies applied for assessing drought-related vulnerability vary greatly due to the differences regarding the spatial and temporal aim of studies (Murthy et al 2015;Dumitraşcu et al 2018;Kamali et al 2018;Rojas 2018;Ahmadalipour et al 2019;Kim et al 2019;Oikonomou et al 2019;Vieira et al 2020).…”

Section: Methodology Of Vulnerability Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought-related vulnerability and its policy implications in Hungary

Buzási

Pálvölgyi

Esses

2021

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Drought phenomena have been frequent in Hungarian history. One of the most important sectors in Hungary is agriculture, so the agricultural drought is a particularly important area to be examined. The purpose of the study is to determine how vulnerable each county (NUTS-3 regions) is to the expected effects of drought. The study provides an assessment framework of drought-related vulnerabilities and the preparedness of drought policies at the NUTS-3 level in Hungary. The drought-related vulnerability of NUTS-3 regions was determined by selected exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators. The calculation of drought vulnerability is based on the IPCC 2007 methodology, while the input data were derived from the National Adaptation Geo-information System online data platform and Hungarian agro-statistical data sources. An assessment framework of drought-related policy performance of NUTS-3-level climate change strategies was developed. The evaluation methodology is based on a specific scorecard of evaluation criteria related to the performance of the county’s drought-related objectives and measures. According to the relationship between the county’s drought-related vulnerability and policy performance, the counties were classified into four types. The main results show that several counties fail the target by overestimating the role of drought prevention, with little vulnerability index. In contrast, many counties are not adequately prepared for the impacts of drought, despite their high vulnerability index.

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A methodology to assess drought management as applied to six European case studies

Cited by 13 publications

References 52 publications

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment—A sociohydrologic, agent‐based approach

Demonstrating the impact of integrated drought policies on hydrological droughts

Drought-related vulnerability and its policy implications in Hungary

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