A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data

Hamed, Khaled H.; Rao, A. Ramachandra

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(97)00125-x

Cited by 2,747 publications

(1,761 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The null hypothesis slopes of meteorological variables were investigated with a confidence level of 95 or 99% in this study by means of two non-parametric methods: the modified Mann-Kendall trend (MMK) (Hamed and Rao 1998;Zhang 2010) and Sen's slope estimator (Gocic and Trajkovic 2013;Sen 1968). They are common methods that have been widely accepted for statistical diagnosis in modern climatic analysis studies (Luo et al 2016;Silva et al 2015;Yue et al 2002).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960–2014

Fang

Luo

Lyu

2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47°C/decade, 0.36°C/decade, 0.36°C/decade, 0.35°C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, owing to the evidence for the existence of positive autocorrelation in the data (n> 10), this approach would increase the probability of detecting trends when actually none exist, and also non-detection of real trends in the data (Hamed and Rao 1998).…”

Section: The Modified Mann-kendall Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960–2014

Fang

Luo

Lyu

2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Le filtrage des données stantardisées permet une comparaison aisée de la variabilité temporelle des débits annuels en amont et en aval du barrage. La stationnante de ces séries hydrologiques a été vérifiée au moyen des tests statistiques de MANN-KENDALL (SNEYERS, 1975 ;HAMED et RAO, 1998) et de PETTITT (PETTITT, 1979LUBÈS-NIEL et al, 1998). Aux échelles saisonnière et mensuelle, nous avons comparé les débits spécifiques, les coefficients mensuels et saisonniers des débits (rapport entre les débits mensuels ou saisonniers sur le débit total annuel), les coefficients d'immodération (rapport entre les débits maximums et minimums mensuels) ainsi que la période d'occurrence des débits maximums et minimums en amont et en aval du barrage.…”

Section: -Données Et Méthodes D'analyseunclassified

Analyse d'impacts d'un barrage sur le régime hydrologique de la rivière Matawin (Québec, Canada)

Assani¹,

Buffin‐Bélanger²,

Roy³

2005

rseau

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Malgré la présence de nombreux barrages au Québec, peu d'études ont été consacrées à l'analyse des impacts de ces ouvrages sur les régimes hydrologiques des cours d'eau. La présente note a pour but d'analyser les impacts d'un barrage sur le régime hydrologique de la rivière Matawin en comparant le régime hydrologique de la rivière en amont (1390 km2) et en aval (4070 km2) du barrage pendant une période de 60 ans (1930-1990) et sur trois échelles temporelles distinctes. A l'échelle interannuelle, l'influence du barrage se manifeste par une persistance plus marquée des effets des épisodes humides ou secs ainsi qu'une hausse ou une baisse des débits moyens annuels respectivement durant ces périodes. Mais cette succession et cette persistance n'ont pas affecté significativement la stationnarité de la série hydrologique. Aux échelles mensuelles et saisonnière, l'influence du barrage se manifeste par une inversion du régime hydrologique caractérisée par une hausse des débits hivernaux et une baisse des débits printaniers. Cette influence se traduit aussi par une baisse significative du débit maximum mensuel mais une hausse du débit minimum mensuel. Il en résulte une diminution du coefficient d'immodération. A l'échelle journalière, le barrage modifie la période d'occurrence des débits extrêmes minimums et maximums. Il provoque la diminution significative des débits extrêmes minimums et maximums. Mais l'écrêtement des crues est modéré pour les débits de récurrence=10 ans. L'impact le plus significatif du barrage de Matawin est sans nul doute l'inversion du régime hydrologique dont les conséquences morphologiques et biologiques ne sont pas encore documentées dans la littérature scientifique canadienne. Cette inversion résulte du faible écoulement hivernal et d'une forte production de l'énergie électrique pendant la saison froide.Few studies have characterized the effect of dams on the hydrologic regime of rivers in Quebec. This is rather strange given the large number of hydroelectric dams that have been constructed in the province. To shed some light on the environmental impact of these dams, this paper aims at describing and quantifying the effect of the Matawin River dam on the hydrologic regime of the river on an annual, seasonal and daily basis. The Matawin River is located north of the St-Lawrence River and is a tributary of the St-Maurice River. The Matawin dam was built in 1929 by Shawinigan Water and Power Co. mainly to supply the Gabelle hydroelectric dam on the Saint-Maurice River. The dam is 26 m high and the storage capacity of the reservoir is 348,000,000 m3 when full. The catchment area of the dam is 4070 km2.To assess the effect of the dam, we used various statistical methods to compare discharge time series over 60 years as measured at two gauging stations on the river. One of the stations is located upstream whereas the other one is located downstream from the Matawin dam. The upstream drainage basin covers an area of 1390 km2. No major tributaries are found between the two gauging stations, thus allowi...

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“…The literature dealing with time series, speci cally their components (e.g. trend [2,3]) is vast, but focusing on irregularities, breakpoints (BPs), caused by these components represents a di erent way of handling data. Scientists have long been aware that time series often cannot be described adequately by a single linear trend, since discontinuities may arise [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting breakpoints in artificially modified- and real-life time series using three state-of-the-art methods

et al. 2016

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Time series often contain breakpoints of di erent origin, i.e. breakpoints, caused by (i) shifts in trend, (ii) other changes in trend and/or, (iii) changes in variance. In the present study, arti cially generated time series with white and red noise structures are analyzed using three recently developed breakpoint detection methods. The time series are modi ed so that the exact "locations" of the arti cial breakpoints are prescribed, making it possible to evaluate the methods exactly. Hence, the study provides a deeper insight into the behaviour of the three di erent breakpoint detection methods. Utilizing this experience can help solving breakpoint detection problems in reallife data sets, as is demonstrated with two examples taken from the elds of paleoclimate research and petrology.

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A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data

Cited by 2,747 publications

References 15 publications

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960–2014

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960–2014

Analyse d'impacts d'un barrage sur le régime hydrologique de la rivière Matawin (Québec, Canada)

Detecting breakpoints in artificially modified- and real-life time series using three state-of-the-art methods

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