A multi-model approach to understanding the role of Pacific sardine in the California Current food web

Kaplan, Isaac C.; Francis, Tessa B.; Punt, André E.; Koehn, Laura E.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Hurtado-Ferro, Felipe; Johnson, Kelli F.; Lluch-Cota, Salvador E.; Sydeman, William J.; Essington, Timothy E.; Taylor, Nathan; Holsman, Kirstin K.; MacCall, Alec D.; Levin, Phillip S.

doi:10.3354/meps12504

Cited by 38 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(87 reference statements)

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“…Livingston et al, 2017). We therefore support ongoing comparative research using multiple ecological models when evaluating climate or human-mediated changes on marine ecosystems (Kaplan et al, 2018;Olsen et al, 2016;Pope et al, 2019;Spence et al, 2018;Tittensor et al, 2018), and note that the MICE-in-space model could fill a useful niche in these model portfolios. Finally, nonconsumptive processes may cause diet analyses to misrepresent the cumulative impact of changing biomass for one species on per-capita productivity for other species.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

“…Comparing results from multiple ecosystem models can help to evaluate the sensitivity of estimated ecosystem properties to structural assumptions and multiple data sources. We therefore support ongoing comparative research using multiple ecological models when evaluating climate or human-mediated changes on marine ecosystems (Kaplan et al, 2018;Olsen et al, 2016;Pope et al, 2019;Spence et al, 2018;Tittensor et al, 2018), and note that the MICE-in-space model could fill a useful niche in these model portfolios.…”

Section: The Species Interactions Estimated From Mice-in-space Contrastsupporting

confidence: 59%

“…through predation or starvation) are often confounded in ecosystem models, and simultaneously addressing these two issues is a key goal in current ecosystem models in regions including the Bering Sea (e.g. multimodel inference) can be used to identify sensitivities in model specification and propagation of error (Kaplan et al, 2018;Pope et al, 2019;Spence et al, 2018). Underlying model structure and implicit versus explicit treatment of environmental or trophic changes to a population becomes extremely important when projecting models for management advice, especially on longer timescales (Lotze et al, 2019).…”

Section: Multimodel Inference Regarding Status and Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These comparisons are vital to identify the relative computational and human resource costs of these different models, as well as identify when models provide different advice (Kaplan et al, 2018;Pope et al, 2019). Comparison with alternative ecosystem models: Perhaps most importantly, we recommend detailed, side-by-side comparison of MICE-in-space and other ecosystem models.…”

Section: Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Livingston et al, 2017). However, estimates of predation impacts on species productivity will typically depend upon structural modelling assumptions, such that models may differ about the magnitude or sign of species interactions even when fitting to diet data (Kaplan et al, 2018;Reum et al, 2019). Finally, nonconsumptive processes may cause diet analyses to misrepresent the cumulative impact of changing biomass for one species on per-capita productivity for other species.…”

Section: The Species Interactions Estimated From Mice-in-space Contrastmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio‐temporal models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem assessments: A new tool for spatial fisheries management

2019

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Multispecies models are widely used to evaluate management trade‐offs arising from species interactions. However, identifying climate impacts and sensitive habitats requires integrating spatial heterogeneity and environmental impacts into multispecies models at fine spatial scales. We therefore develop a spatio‐temporal model of intermediate complexity for ecosystem assessments (a “MICE‐in‐space”), which is fitted to survey sampling data and time series of fishing mortality using maximum‐likelihood techniques. The model is implemented in the VAST R package, and it can be configured to range from purely descriptive to including ratio‐dependent interactions among species. We demonstrate this model using data for four groundfishes in the Gulf of Alaska using data from 1982 to 2015. Model selection for this case‐study shows that models with species interactions are parsimonious, although a model specifying separate density dependence without interactions also has substantial support. The AIC‐selected model estimates a significant, negative impact of Alaska pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus, Gadidae) on productivity of other species and suggests that recent fishing mortality for Pacific cod (G. microcephalus, Gadidae) is above the biological reference point (BRP) resulting in 40% of unfished biomass; other models show similar trends but different scales due to different BRP estimates. A simulation experiment shows that fitting a model with fewer species at a coarse spatial resolution degrades estimation performance, but that interactions and biological reference points can still be estimated accurately. We conclude that MICE‐in‐space models can simultaneously estimate fishing impacts, species trade‐offs, biological reference points and habitat quality. They are therefore suitable to forecast short‐term climate impacts, optimize survey designs and designate protected habitats.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: The Species Interactions Estimated From Mice-in-space Contrastsupporting

confidence: 59%

Section: Multimodel Inference Regarding Status and Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Species Interactions Estimated From Mice-in-space Contrastmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio‐temporal models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem assessments: A new tool for spatial fisheries management

2019

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The economic tradeoffs and ecological impacts associated with a potential mesopelagic fishery in the California Current

Chapman

Koehn

Hoagland

2022

Ecological Applications

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The ocean's mesopelagic zone (200–1000 m) remains one of the most understudied parts of the ocean despite knowledge that mesopelagic fishes are highly abundant. Apex predators from the surface waters are known to consume these fishes, constituting an important ecological interaction. Some countries have begun exploring the potential harvest of mesopelagic fishes to supply fishmeal and fish oil markets due to the high fish abundance in the mesopelagic zone compared with overfished surface waters. This study explored the economic and ecological implications of a moratorium on the harvest of mesopelagic fishes such as lanternfish off the US West Coast, one of the few areas where such resources are managed. We adapted a bioeconomic decision model to examine the tradeoffs between the values gained from a hypothetical mesopelagic fishery with the potential values lost from declines in predators of mesopelagic fishes facing a reduced prey resource. The economic rationale for a moratorium on harvesting mesopelagics was sensitive both to ecological relationships and the scale of the nonmarket values attributed to noncommercial predators. Using a California Current‐based ecological simulation model, we found that most modeled predators of mesopelagic fishes increased in biomass even under high mesopelagic harvest rates, but the changes (either increases or decreases) were small, with relatively few predators responding with more than a 10% change in their biomass. While the ecological simulations implied that a commercial mesopelagic fishery might not have large biomass impacts for many species in the California Current system, there is still a need to further explore the various roles of the mesopelagic zone in the ocean.

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Is there a Future in the Sustainability Certification of Sardine and Anchovy Fisheries?

Izquierdo-Peña¹,

Lluch‐Cota²,

Chávez

et al. 2020

Fisheries

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Small pelagic fisheries management is difficult because they exhibit large natural abundance fluctuations and are considered forage fish. We discuss the challenges faced by these fisheries within the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) sustainability certification framework, which evaluates the sustainability of fish stocks, the environmental impact, and effective fisheries management. Certification suspension is frequently linked to the sustainability of stocks. For MSC certification, scientific research will need to play a major role in filling key knowledge gaps, particularly on the nature and causes of ecosystem productivity changes (including climate change), and the role of small pelagics in the ecosystem. Different from other cases where MSC certification creates a direct market incentive through price premiums, in these fisheries, the incentive is related to fisher's public image and improves the bases for negotiation with authorities and the conservation sector. In this context, strategic cooperation between fisheries under the certification process may provide them more benefits than competition.

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A multi-model approach to understanding the role of Pacific sardine in the California Current food web

Cited by 38 publications

References 58 publications

Spatio‐temporal models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem assessments: A new tool for spatial fisheries management

Spatio‐temporal models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem assessments: A new tool for spatial fisheries management

The economic tradeoffs and ecological impacts associated with a potential mesopelagic fishery in the California Current

Is there a Future in the Sustainability Certification of Sardine and Anchovy Fisheries?

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