A new empirical distribution for the design wave heights under the impact of typhoons

Liu, Guilin; Cui, Ke; Jiang, Song; Kou, Yi; You, Zaijin; Yu, Pubing

doi:10.1016/j.apor.2021.102679

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Globally, typhoons (hurricanes) are one of the natural disasters that have caused the greatest losses to human society. With global warming, the frequency of strong typhoons (hurricanes) is increasing, and hydrological events (including rainfall, runoff, evaporation, flood, drought, tide, storm surge, huge wave) caused by typhoons are more serious and frequent than ever (see Figure 1), which has attracted the close attention of scholars in related fields [1][2][3]. Typhoon Hato brought a Class 10 gale to Hong Kong on 23 August 2017, causing economic losses of USD 1.02 billion and injuring nearly 100 people.…”

Section: Research Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design Wave Height Parameter Estimation Model Reflecting the Influence of Typhoon Time and Space

Liu

Kou

et al. 2021

JMSE

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Typhoon storm surge disasters are one of the main restrictive factors of sustainable development in coastal areas. They are one of several important tasks in disaster prevention and reduction in coastal areas and require reasonable and accurate calculations of wave height in typhoon-affected sea areas to predict and resist typhoon storm surge disasters. In this paper, the design wave height estimation method based on the stochastic process and the principle of maximum entropy are theoretically advanced, and it can provide a new idea as well as a new method for the estimation of the return level for marine environmental elements under the influence of extreme weather. The model uses a family of random variables to reflect the influence of a typhoon on wave height at different times and then displays the statistical characteristics of wave height in time and space. At the same time, under the constraints of the given observations, the maximum uncertainty of the unobtainable data is maintained. The new model covers the compound extreme value distribution model that has been widely used and overcomes the subjective interference of the artificially selected distribution function—to a certain extent. Taking the typhoon wave height data of Naozhou Observatory as an example, this paper analyzes the probability of typhoon occurrence frequency at different times and the characteristics of typhoon intensity in different time periods. We then calculate the wave height return level and compare it with traditional calculation models. The calculation results show that the new model takes into account the time factor and the interaction between adjacent time periods. Furthermore, it reduces the subjective human interference, so the calculated results of the typhoon’s influence on wave height return level are more stable and accurate.

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Section: Research Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design Wave Height Parameter Estimation Model Reflecting the Influence of Typhoon Time and Space

Liu

Kou

et al. 2021

JMSE

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“…In the context of climate change, which is mainly characterized by global warming, extreme weather and climate disasters have increased significantly and their impact on socio-economic development has become increasingly severe [1][2][3]. Among the extreme weather and climate events, disaster losses caused by tropical cyclones are particularly severe [4][5][6]. For example, the "720" Henan rainstorm event in 2021 was an extreme rainfall event formed under the "push" of Typhoon In-fa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard Based on Loss Utility

Liu,

Yang,

Nong

et al. 2023

JMSE

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In the context of climate change with frequent natural disasters, disaster risk assessment can provide great help for related risk decision-making. Based on the theory of loss expectation, this paper presents a quantitative method to assess typhoon disaster risk. Among them, the probability of typhoon occurrence is calculated by fitting the optimal structure function of the sample to the joint distribution of wave height, water increment and wind speed. Then, the loss expectation is expressed as the product of typhoon occurrence probability and loss utility, which is used to quantify the loss result of a typhoon disaster. Using the loss utility theory, the risk grade chart is drawn with the direct economic loss rate and the proportion of the affected population as indicators. The results show that the absolute loss value considering the loss utility is slightly higher than the loss value of the quantitative algorithm by 2% to 25%, indicating that the new model reflects the social group’s aversion to typhoon disaster risk. As can be seen from the risk level zoning map, the highest combined risk level typhoons are Prapiroon 0606 and Chanthu 1003, with a risk level of Category 5. The typhoon comprehensive risk level before 2011 was ≥3, and the typhoon comprehensive risk level from 2012 to 2015 was ≤3. The evaluation model has certain feasibility and practicability, and the results can provide a basis and reference for typhoon risk assessment and decision-making.

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“…In the context of climate change, which is mainly characterized by global warming, extreme weather and climate disasters have increased significantly and their impact on socio-economic development has become increasingly severe (Qin et al2005;Liu et al2006;Wang et al2013;Zeng et al2017). Among the extreme weather and climate events, disaster losses caused by tropical cyclones are particularly severe (Yin et al2013;Wang et al2014;Liu et al2020aLiu et al ,2021a. For example, the "720" Henan rainstorm event in 2021 was an extreme rainfall event formed under the "push" of Typhoon In-fa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard based on Aversion Utility

Liu

Nong

Kou

et al. 2022

Preprint

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In the context of climate change where natural disasters are frequent, assessing disaster risk can provide great help for relevant risk decisions. Based on the loss expectation theory, this paper proposes a method for quantitatively assessing typhoon disaster risk. In particular, the probability of typhoon occurrence is calculated by fitting the best structure function of the samples to the joint distribution of wave height, water increase, and wind speed. The loss expectation is then expressed as the product of the typhoon occurrence probability and the aversion utility loss, which is used to quantify the loss result of a typhoon disaster. In addition, a risk level map is created using the theory of aversion utility, with the direct economic loss rate and the proportion of disaster-affected population as indicators. The calculation results show that the absolute loss value considering the aversion utility is slightly higher than the product of the probability and the loss value, indicating that the new model reflects the social group's aversion to typhoon disaster risk. The diagram of risk level zoning showed that, excluding typhoon No.1306 Rumbia, the risk level assessments of the remaining typhoons, in accordance with affected population and direct economic loss, were basically consistent. This evaluation model, the outcomes of which can serve as a foundation and reference for certain risk assessment and decision-making, has some feasibility and practicability.

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A new empirical distribution for the design wave heights under the impact of typhoons

Cited by 10 publications

References 40 publications

Design Wave Height Parameter Estimation Model Reflecting the Influence of Typhoon Time and Space

Design Wave Height Parameter Estimation Model Reflecting the Influence of Typhoon Time and Space

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard Based on Loss Utility

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard based on Aversion Utility

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